Real estate

Man Whose Mexico Beach House Was One of Last Standing After Hurricane Michael Calls out Climate Denier Politicians

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 22/10/2018 - 8:55pm in

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Richard Murphy: Who Really Pays the Tax on Rents?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 17/10/2018 - 8:37pm in

Clearing up a widespread misperception about tax.

No, really; everything's fine

Published by Matthew Davidson on Fri, 05/10/2018 - 10:01am in

Among the headlines in the AFR Real Estate section this morning:

So, soft landing?: "Allianz-owned PIMCO, like many analysts, expects a decline in overall housing prices of 10 per cent over the next couple of years and says the market slowdown engineered by macroprudential regulator APRA does not indicate a crash likely to threaten financial stability."

What's happened since the last time I looked at private sector debt to GDP ratios? Not much, but something:

If you zoom in on the post-GDP period (caution: non-zero y-axis origin ahead):

(Source: BIS total credit statistics)

Usual disclaimer: This is the rear mirror view. Only part of the picture, and systemic crises may be closer than they appear. The fall in the total since 2016 is entirely due to the corporate sector; the situation for households is no better than a couple of years ago. To get household debt down in the face of falling property values (which should never have been allowed - indeed encouraged - to get that high in the first place) somebody has to do some spending to both raise GDP and the income necessary for repayment of household debt. Corporations won't do it; they are delevering. Households can't do it; they have debt, not savings.

The government must step in to fill the spending gap by increasing benefits and decreasing taxes on households, and by employing (lots of) people. If they don't, the best outcome will be a continuation of the post-GFC new normal of stagnation and unnecessary hardship. As far as I can see, an Australian domestic mortgage-backed crash is no less likely in 2018/19 than in 2016, and the qualitative evidence (not least: sanguine predictions by very smart people with very vested interests, designed to quell restive animal spirits) points in the same direction.

“High End” Apartment Construction Totally Dominates, Creates Mismatch of Supply & Demand

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 04/10/2018 - 5:52pm in

Urban apartment development all over the US has been heavily skewed towards luxury units, even though there isn't enough demand for all the supply.

How Real Estate Segregated America

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 02/10/2018 - 2:00pm in

Real-estate interests have long wielded an outsized influence over national housing policy—to the detriment of African Americans.

Wolf Richter: Here Comes the Second Wave of Big Money in the “Buy-to-Rent” Scheme

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 24/08/2018 - 4:55pm in

PE firms are paying prices at the peak of the market, amid ceaseless complaints that there isn’t enough inventory of homes for sale,

Asset Prices and Wealth Inequality

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 09/08/2018 - 4:25pm in

How asset prices have driven the evolution of US wealth inequality over the last 70 years.

Bill Black: Pre-Crisis “4506-T Studies” Showed Massive Fraud in Liar’s Loans; Fed Ignored Warning, DoJ Refused to Target Implicated Banksters

Yet another proof that the authorities were given evidence of widespread mortgage fraud before the crisis and chose to do nothing about it.

Bill Black: Mankiw Whiffs on “Learning the Right Lessons from the Financial Crisis”

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 01/08/2018 - 3:58pm in

Bill Black debunks a book that tries to relitigate the crisis by denying that Lehman was insolvent.