Let’s state the obvious bits and get them out of the way:
- The rebels are basically Al-Qaeda;
- They are supported by Turkey, Israel and the US;
- The Syrian army barely fought during the initial attacks and it was very embarrassing;
- Aleppo fell in a couple days. It may take a couple years to take it back;
- The timing is intended to take advantage of Hezbollah’s being weakened and tied down by Israel.
Syria was losing the previous war until Hezbollah and Russia intervened. It may well lose this war if Hezbollah and/or Russia don’t send troops, but both of them have other enemies they need to worry about.
If Syria falls, Russia loses its Mediterranean naval and air bases and thus a great deal of its military reach. Hezbollah loses its main supply line to Iran.
The big mistakes that lead to this were playing footsie with Turkey/Erdogan and tolerating a frozen conflict. Syria, with Russia and Hezbollah’s support could have conquered Idlib, but Russia decided not to, leaving enemies with a foothold in Syria. Those enemies waited till the best time, then re0-openned the war.
If you’re winning a war and can win the war, then frozen conflicts are a bad idea. They remain a knife near your throat. Russia made this mistake in 2014 as well, when it could easily have fully defeated Ukraine and imposed a peace.
Hopefully they’ve learned the lesson. They do have enough reserves left to send sufficient troops to Syria. This time, win the war.
SUBSCRIBE OR DONATE TO OUR 2024 FUNDRAISER