I have lived through some tiresome news cycles in my life but this Chinese balloon cycle was one of the worst. The hysteria was completely inane, particularly on the right but among the media as well. But it is a story and it’s bizarre enough that a little calm expertise is called for. James Fallows is not only a great journalist but also an aviator and a China hand so his analysis is particularly astute: I. The Chinese Balloon Q: Do we believe the Chinese government statement that this was just a science-oriented weather mission? A: No. Q: Then what could the people who launched it conceivably have been thinking? A: Who knows. At the moment I can imagine three possibilities, all bad. -First, this could have been a screwup in the most basic sense. Whoever launched it thought the jet-stream winds would keep it over Canada, rather than dipping into the U.S. Of course that would still mean traversing airspace of a NATO member, and of course it would mean crossing Alaska before that. This possibility is conceivable but not likely. -Second, this could have been a screwup within the Chinese leadership. Some military hothead might have thought that sending the balloon would be a great way to poke the “declining” Americans, while prove his or her own “fighting spirit” initiative, and also demonstrating China’s technical and military prowess. There’s a precedent. Back in 2007 it appears that some Chinese military hothead shot down a satellite, without letting the leader…