America loves a fighter Polls we reported on Tuesday suggest that a large swath of maybe-Trump supporters are looking for an excuse to abandon him in 2024. A criminal conviction is what they’re waiting for: An October Times/Siena poll indicates the conviction gut-punch for Trump would be stronger in swing states, leading to Biden victories in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania as well as Wisconsin where Biden is already favored. The shift would be “seismic,” with Biden winning by 10 rather than losing by four percentage points. Democrats are their own worst enemies in this situation. Three years ago on the date the Electoral College met to officially elect Joe Biden president, I posted: It is never a good bet to think Donald J. Trump won’t stoop that low or lower. But the question Democrats have to answer now both for others and for themselves is what they will do to defeat the New Confederacy that announced itself last week. Democrats’ first instinct will be to put the Recent Unpleasantness behind them…. To refresh memories, mutliple post-election protests by thousands of Trump supporters resulted in violence.
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This is a viral pic of DeSantis being interviewed for a podcast. It says it all, doesn’t it? His campaign is falling apart. Any competent advance person should have seen to it that this wouldn’t happen. And then they went ahead and posted it. But DeSantis has a history of terrible photo ops and memes. Like the go-go boots: And the flight helmet: The man was never ready for prime time. And I don’t think he ever will be.
Anyone who makes a MAGA buck has to kick back to Trump. Dear Leader wants his cut: “It’s my fucking money!” the 2024 Republican presidential frontrunner privately vented in October, referring to an alleged sum in the tens of millions of dollars, a source with direct knowledge of the matter tells Rolling Stone. Trump wasn’t talking about a business deal. Rather, he’s been grumbling about money donated to a think tank his former staffers and allies founded in 2021 to “advance the America First agenda.” For several months now, according to three people with knowledge of the situation, the former president has complained to an array of confidants and Republicans about the millions raised by the America First Policy Institute, a MAGAfied think tank launched near the start of his post-presidency. The nonprofit is populated by several former high-ranking Trump administration officials, including Larry Kudlow, Rick Perry, and Linda McMahon, and it’s led by Brooke Rollins, who served as a top White House domestic policy aide to Trump.
The presidents’ Christmas messages I posted Trump’s Christmas eve message in an earlier post. It was something. He went even further on Christmas: He was busy all Christmas morning, going to church, enjoying the grandkids, watching a little football. Oh wait, no he wasn’t: By contrast: At least the mainstream media is covering it. I don’t know about Fox. I’d guess not…
There is still time Digby yesterday on the climate crisis: So kids, I’m begging you to devote as much energy as possible to this issue and make the smartest political decisions you can make right now. This just can’t wait. — there’s literally nothing more important to your future. None of the other things you care about will matter if this doesn’t get fixed. It’s now or never. It’s been gently raining all night. It’s supposed to rain all day. Steady, gentle rain. That’s different from the violent summer downpours that flood streets and basements across the neighborhood. No amount of hydrological remediation in your yard is going to stop that. The problem is climate change may be accelerating (Washington Post – gifted): For the past several years, a small group ofscientists has warned that sometime early this century, the rate of global warming — which has remained largely steady for decades — might accelerate. Temperatures could rise higher, faster. The drumbeat of weather disasters may become more insistent.
Maybe it’s going to work out after all? There’s a lot of economic news this holiday week. The media is slowly but surely beginning the turn although they give Biden no credit even as Trump is out there saying we’re in a recession and acting as if he presided over Camelot or something. But really, the news is good. Here’s one little data point from the professionals who have no reason at all to blow smoke. (After all, they can make money either way…) Here’s the Goldman Sachs projection for 2024: Unemployment to stay low, 3.6%. Wage growth of 3.5% with inflation at 2%, meaning real wage growth of 1.5%. Overall growth of 2%. FRB starts cutting interest rates throughout 2024. — Our most out-of-consensus call for 2024 is our growth forecast. Our 2% forecast for 2024 Q4/Q4 GDP growth is well above consensus of 0.9% and the FOMC’s 1.4% forecast. This reflects our view that the growth impulses from changes in financial conditions and changes in fiscal policy should be modest and roughly neutral on net next year. It also reflects our forecast that consumer spending will easily beat expectations—we expect 2% growth vs.
The Daily Mail released a poll showing that Trump is up 4 points from Biden (with a margin of error at 3.5, which is undoubtedly very generous.) They also did one of those questions asking “what word do you associate with Trump and Biden.” He’s apparently very proud of the word cloud they made of it: He likes it! I assume he thinks all this is a huge compliment. And I think we can be sure that he’s going to give them more of what they want. Here’s the Biden word cloud which he didn’t post: When I went looking for this I fully expected that the biggest word in that cloud was going to be “old.” “Nothing” is actually a happy surprise. It’s not even particularly negative, it’s just … neutral. People aren’t thinking much about him one way or the other. We can work with that. The rest of the words are largely positive. Trump’s fascism, on the other hand is making a huge impact. And it appears that a whole lot of people think his fascism is just great. They want this orange make-up wearing, yellow cotton-candy haired, imbecilic monster to be their dictator.
Once again, thanks so much to everyone who has supported Hullabaloo this year. It’s such a blessing to have such generous readers and I sincerely appreciate it. I’m particularly grateful right now because I know this next year is going to be a doozy and I’m girding myself for months of angst and worry— tempered by focus, hope and determination. It’s not going to be an easy one. In fact, I absolutely believe this is a make or break election for this country. If we don’t get this right, it’s hard to see how we recover in time to keep the entire world from turning into chaos as we face out-of-control climate change in a time of authoritarian strongmen dedicated to their own self-preservation. (See: Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Orban etc…) It’s hard not to sound crazy when you talk about it… but we have to talk about it. I hope that many of you were able to take the whole week off and get some down time to rest up and get ready. It’s going to be a very tumultuous 2024.
Ron DeSantis’ epic failure Here’s a Christmas present for all of you who don’t have subscriptions to the NY Times: a free link to this delightful bit of holiday schadenfreude: the story of Ron DeSantis’ precipitous fall. Grab an egg nog and add a double shot. It’s just so much fun: Boxed in by a base enamored with Mr. Trump that has instinctively rallied to the former president’s defense, Mr. DeSantis has struggled for months to match the hype that followed his landslide 2022 re-election. Now, with the first votes in the Iowa caucuses only weeks away on Jan. 15, Mr. DeSantis has slipped in some polls into third place, behind Nikki Haley, and has had to downsize his once-grand national ambitions to the simple hopes that a strong showing in a single state — Iowa — could vault him back into contention. For a candidate who talks at length about his own disinterest in “managing America’s decline,” people around Mr. DeSantis are increasingly talking about managing his. Ryan Tyson, Mr.
Social Security expert Nancy Altman has some news Social Security is in safer hands: Last week, the Senate confirmed Martin O’Malley to be the next Commissioner of Social Security. This is a major achievement: It marks the first time in over 25 years that the Senate has confirmed a Social Security commissioner nominated by a Democratic president. Indeed, commissioners nominated by Democratic presidents have headed the Social Security Administration (“SSA”) for only eight years of the last 40. This fact is important because the Democratic and Republican parties have very different views about Social Security. Democrats created Social Security and in recent years have united around the need to protect and expand the system’s modest benefits. In sharp contrast, when Social Security was enacted in 1935, Republicans in Congress were overwhelmingly hostile. From the early 1950s until recently, mainstream Republicans largely voted for protecting and expanding Social Security, as the program became established and highly popular among voters across the ideological spectrum.