Political strategist Simon Rosenberg got the 2022 election right when almost everyone else got it wrong. He’s worth listening to. Here, he discusses that Washington Post/ABC poll and suggests, correctly, that they should have just thrown it out. (And the rest of the media should have ignored it.) He has some other info you might find interesting: A few other notes on this poll and other recent election data: -In a recent post I talked about something I’ve been calling asymetrical engagement. It’s the idea that right now, due to Republicans having a robust primary and Democrats not that our two coalitions are not paying equal attention to the Presidential election, and polls are coming back a bit more Republican than is the actual state of things. A confirmation of this theory is the new CNN poll of New Hampshire, a state where voters are paying attention and engaged, which has Biden ahead of Trump 52-40. Biden won NH by 7 pts in 2020. So in this large sample poll of a state where ads are flying Biden is outperforming 2020 by 5 points, similar to our overperformance in special elections across the US this year.
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Good Lord. Philip Bump has the story: America transitioned out of its covid-19 mobilization the same way it transitioned in: awkwardly, unevenly and with mixed results. The Biden administration’s interest in formalizing the end of the official pandemic — under pressure from President Biden’s right — meant that systems that had been cobbled together to measure and address the problem were often just switched off, with varying downstream effects. Given that the tools we’d used to track the pandemic are now mostly broken or out-of-date, it’s a bit harder to know when and if the virus might again be surging. But in recent weeks, there’s been little question: wastewater measurements and other calculations made clear that infections were again rising. Hopefully, despite the shift to cooler weather in the Northeast, the recent plateau in cases means the trend is reversing. When KFF earlier this month asked Americans if they thought that cases were surging, however, about a third said they didn’t. That was a minority position, but the demographic divides on the question were revealing.
wow this new biden ad is brilliant pic.twitter.com/9zcuq9Qlp9 — MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) September 28, 2023
This from Punchbowl is just astonishing. It represents a failure of education that a faction of Republicans has absolutely no knowledge of history and is too stupid and arrogant to listen to anyone who does: One week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a plea for additional American aid, a sobering reality has set in on Capitol Hill — Congress has no clear path, as of this moment, to approve new funding for the embattled U.S. ally. The issue has become tied up in the dispute over government funding, with Speaker Kevin McCarthy refusing to include new Ukraine aid in any stopgap spending measure over fears that a conservative revolt could cost him his post. In some ways, McCarthy’s own standing has become tied to this issue. Ukraine in general has become such a charged issue for House Republicans that party leaders late Wednesday night stripped a small portion of Ukraine aid from their version of the FY2024 Defense spending bill. That came just hours after the House overwhelmingly defeated an amendment to strip this exact same funding from the bill. The vote was 330-104.
He’s upset that the RNC is hosting debates he refuses to attend: The former president cloaked his effort to shut down opponents by claiming to be concerned about the Republican Party. Former President Donald Trump on Thursday called for the cancellation of further GOP debates, perhaps hoping to deprive his rivals of a national stage under the guise of what he claims is best for the Republican Party. “They have to stop the debates. Because it is just bad for the Republican Party. They are not going anywhere. There is not going to be a breakout candidate,” Trump told the right-wing Daily Caller. “I am very concerned about the RNC not being able to do their job,” the multi-indicted frontrunner added about the Republican National Committee (RNC). His comments doubled down on his campaign’s order Wednesday to halt the debates, which Trump has studiously avoided while he enjoys a large polling lead. He confirmed to the Daily Caller that he would also not attend the third one. “It’s clear that President Trump alone can defeat Biden,” campaign adviser Chris LaCivita said in an earlier statement.
“Donald Trump is no longer in business.” Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron ruled Tuesday that the Trump Organization is guilty of a decade of systemic fraud. The evidence is so plain that edjudicating the facts at trial is unneeded. Engoron also revoked its state business licenses and ordered it dissolved (Washington Post): A judge overseeing a $250 million lawsuit against Donald Trump ruled the former president and his company committed fraud by inflating his net worth in business transactions, narrowing the scope of what the state’s attorney general must prove at an upcoming civil trial.
The way Sen. Tuberville talks so openly about about white supremacy is just jaw dropping. I refuse to allow this to feel normal. https://t.co/Hmv1P5JYpD — Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) September 27, 2023 He’s the heir to George Wallace. Alabama must be so proud.
Why doesn’t the mainstream media make that clear? Here’s the NY Times today: Rather than attending the debate, Mr. Trump will appear with union workers in Detroit. No, he is going to speak at a non-union shop and from what we have heard he’s going to trash the union. I have no doubt there may be a few MAGA union members in attendance to see their Dear Leader but this is not a “union” appearance. The good news is that it appears the local news is telling it like it is: SPOTTED ON MICHIGAN TV >> “The major difference between these two is President Biden visited with UAW members, union members, where President Trump is visiting here…these are nonunion workers.” pic.twitter.com/wvyRl2i4eG — Ammar Moussa (@ammarmufasa) September 27, 2023 This isn’t hard but for some reason the media just can’t seem to get it right when it comes to Trump and the working class. They are as dazzled by his bullshit as his cult members are.
Probably not. And that’s a problem. The new, large sample Economist/YouGov poll has Biden up 5 points over Trump 45-40. The new, large sample CNN poll of NH has Biden up over Trump by 12 points, 52-40. In dozens of specials across US this year Dems are outperforming 2020 by 8 pts. Have a nice day. pic.twitter.com/m5SSK2jXyw — Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) September 27, 2023 You can feel the febrile excitement in the media when a poll comes out that shows Trump beating Biden. They simply can’t help themselves. That poll that came out over the weekend was admittedly an outlier and they did it anyway. It’s going to be close. We have to face that fact. But the idea that Trump is running away with it is ridiculous. We’re not that far gone …. yet.
It’s the contagion, stupid New York State Supreme Court judge Arthur Engoron ruled Tuesday that Donald J. Trump, the former U.S. president, is a liar. His Trump Organization is a lie. His claims about his wealth are lies. All of this is known. David Cay Johnston knew long before Trump ran for president. David Barstow, Susanne Craig and Russ Buettner of the New York Times won Pulitzers for exposing the Trump family’s corrupt and fraudulent practices in 2018. The Washington Post gave up counting Trump’s lies and misleading statements as president when they topped 30,000. Sure, everyone lies occasionally. But Al Franken lampooned the right’s enthusiasm for lying in “Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them” (2003) before his stint as a U.S. senator. Lying as matter of course, as a political tactic, as a means of conducting oneself day to day was common before Trump. (Remember “death panels”?) Conspiracy theories built on smears and lies have been around for decades. But lying as a way to make a fortune at others’ expense seemed to become a contagion under Trump.