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Here are eight predictions for the coming year, in accordance with a hallowed tradition that I have previously not honored.

The post Fed Will Cause Unnecessary Harm to the US and World Economy Next Year appeared first on Center for Economic and Policy Research.

Preparing to wreck the constitution to save it What is the difference between armed “patriots” and armed Taliban? Choice of personal weapon, perhaps? Laura Jedeed attended the Patriot Academy’s “Constitutional Defense” training camp last summer in New Mexico and writes about it for The New Republic. “The handgun course is a loss leader,” she came to see. “The ideology is the product.” Founder Rick Green’s trainees are not preparing so much for armed insurrection as for getting 34 state legislatures to petition for an Article V convention of the states to rewrite the Constitution to better align with biblical principles. Many familiar conservative names and organizations back the efforts of Convention of States Action (COSA): the Mercer family, former Senator Jim DeMint, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), David Barton, and more. In 2016, COSA organized a mock convention of the states in Virginia.

As I write this we are awaiting the Speaker vote which is looking to be an all-day dumpster fire. Couldn’t happen to a nicer party. Meanwhile, the Democrats are all together, everyone committed to voting against mcCarthy, no game playing at all. Unbelievable. We really are in Bizarroworld. There are some great moments among the crazy, though. Here’s one: Awesome.

Bernie Sanders has health lobbyists spooked The Vermont senator is immune to their charms (Politico): The Vermont independent is set to take over the Senate’s Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee next month. Leading the panel gives the Medicare-for-All proponent oversight authority over some of his policy priorities — drug pricing, workers’ rights and income inequality, and student and medical debt. But Sanders’ well-chronicled antagonism toward lobbyists has some concerned they’ll be unable to blunt criticism of their clients’ profits or corporate executive salaries. They are anxious Sanders might seek to revive policies like importing drugs from Canada and other nations, an idea loathed by drugmakers. Oh, the horror! Lobbyists also worry they’ll struggle to get traction on any push to make changes to a drug discount program involving pharmaceutical companies and hospitals or revisit association health plans after a Trump-era rule around them was voided. “This will not be business as usual for K Street.

Historic weakness At this moment, we don’t have any idea what will happen. He could pull it out or we could end up with several ballots and someone else. By the time you read this we may know. But whatever happens we are going to be dealing with a House majority in chaos and historically weak. Lol. Ron Brownstein analyzed the ramifications of this: No matter how they resolve Tuesday’s vote choosing the next speaker of the House, Republicans appear poised to double down on the hard-edged politics that most swing state voters rejected in last November’s midterm election. Stubborn conservative resistance to House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy has put the party at risk of precipitating the first speakership election that extends to more than a single ballot since 1923 – and only the second since the Civil War. But even if McCarthy ultimately prevails, the show of strength from the GOP’s conservative vanguard has ensured it enormous leverage in shaping the party’s legislative and investigative agenda.

Can you believe this is necessary? That the House Republicans are feared to be such lawless monsters that they would endanger the lives of people who testified truthfully is outrageous — if it weren’t so predictable: The leaders of the House January 6 select committee investigation have asked the White House to help shield the identities of key witnesses who gave evidence regarding White House officials’ fears that President Trump’s desire to walk to the Capitol with a riotous mob of his supporters indicated his intention to mount a coup against the government he led at the time. In a letter to Richard Sauber, a White House attorney who serves as special counsel to President Joe Biden, Representatives Bennie Thompson and Liz Cheney — the panel’s chair and vice-chair — noted that the committee had reached agreement with the White House Counsel’s Office to obtain testimony from certain White House personnel on the condition that the identities of any such witnesses would remain secret.

He blamed the anti-abortion zealots for the mid-term loss That’s a very big mistake and it makes me think that he really has lost a step. By this time he should know that this is a very important part of his base and fundamental to the Trump Cult. He’s right, of course. But that doesn’t make it smart in his political position to say it, especially so crudely. He used to understand that. Sure, he’s made mistakes on this issue before, by saying that he thought people who have abortions should be punished, but that was a mistake in favor of extremism. That’s always forgivable to the wingnuts. (They approve of killing doctors, after all.) But to blame the extremists for losing and saying they didn’t bother to vote once they got their way is a major error. He’s never been good at nuance but you’d think he would remember that this is a third rail in GOP politics. He’s losing it.

Kevin McCarthy capitulated to the crazies yesterday and agreed to reinstate the “vacate the chair” rule with a compromise that would allow five Representatives to challenge the Speaker and call for a vote (a sort of “no confidence” move.) This rule was in place for decades allowing only on Rep to call for the vote but was withdrawn after wingnuts decided to abuse it. Now they want it back and McCarthy, for obvious reasons, has not been receptive. But finally he came up with this compromise which … didn’t help. There are still a whole bunch of nos (the last I saw was it was 14) against his for speaker. And they all have different demands. Meanwhile, the so-called “moderates” (which simply means they’re only 50% batshit crazy) are starting to get restive as well. It’s a mess. Harry Enten at CNN has an analysis of poor Kev’s current troubles. The problem is that nobody likes him: House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy is hoping all’s well that ends well when it comes to becoming speaker of the chamber.

Imagine that Politico provides us with some data about mail in and early voting that proves Donald Trump is a total fool: If there was any doubt Donald Trump’s vilification of early voting is only hurting the GOP, new receipts from the midterm elections show it. Election data from a trio of states that dramatically expanded the ability to cast ballots before Election Day, either early or by mail, demonstrate that the voting methods that were decidedly uncontroversial before Trump do not clearly help either party. Lawmakers of both parties made it easier to vote by expanding availability of mail and early voting in a politically mixed group of states: Vermont, Kentucky and Nevada. The states had divergent results but shared a few key things in common. Making it easier to vote early or by mail did not lead to voter fraud, nor did it seem to advantage Republicans or Democrats. In Kentucky, Republicans held on to five of the state’s six congressional districts and a Senate seat. Both Vermont and Nevada saw split-ticket voters decide statewide races, by a gaping margin in Vermont and a narrow one in Nevada.

Only the best people … After a mob stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, a top aide to Ivanka Trump and presidential adviser Hope Hicks fumed about tweets posted by supermodel Karlie Kloss, the wife of Jared Kushner’s brother. That’s according to text messages released by the House’s Jan. 6 committee—which also reveal the aide, Julie Radford, and Hicks were worried that the insurrection would destroy their reputations. After the riot, Kloss took to Twitter to write: “Accepting the results of a legitimate democratic election is patriotic. Refusing to do so and inciting violence is anti-American.” She also responded to a Twitter user who encouraged her to “tell your sister-in-law and brother-[in]-law” by replying, “I’ve tried.” The newly released texts show that Hicks flagged the Kloss tweets for Radford, who responded, “Unreal. She just called me about it.” Hicks then texted back: “I am so done” and added, “Does she get how royally fucked they all are now?” Hicks and Radford also fretted that they would face fallout from the deadly Capitol riots.