GDP-at-Risk

Marco Garofalo, Simon Lloyd and Edward Manuel The economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war have brought the importance of sharp changes in commodity prices, such as oil, to centre stage. While many have focused on understanding the impact of these developments on the central projection for the macroeconomic outlook, this post investigates the balance of … Continue reading Fuelling the tail: inflation- and GDP-at-Risk with oil-supply shocks →

Kristina Bluwstein, Sudipto Karmakar and David Aikman Introduction Inflation reached almost 9% in July 2022, its highest reading since the early 1990s. A large proportion of the working age population will never have experienced such price increases, or the prospect of higher interest rates to bring inflation back under control. In recent years, many commentators … Continue reading What does the rise in the inflation mean for financial stability? →