global south

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The Government, like the Pied Piper, marches the nation back to Dickensian Britain

“Please spread the word. We need to end the ‘state is like household’ analogy. The main constraint on govt. spending is the productive capacity and resources in the economy and the risk of inflation – not the size of the budget deficit.”

Josh Ryan-Collins on Twitter

The Pied Piper of Hamelin playing his pipe and leading the children away from the town
The Pied Piper of Hamelin, print, Henry Marsh, after John La Farge (MET, 21.65.4). John La viola, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

This week, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, after dragging his feet and protesting in his speech to the CBI that, given the external global circumstances driving the cost-of-living increases, ‘there is no measure that any government could take’, has now done an about-turn. After telling the public not so long back that his top priority as the dangers of the pandemic receded was to restore the public finances, the ongoing and worsening supply crisis has finally forced his reluctant hand, albeit as a temporary and inadequate measure as many charities and other anti-poverty groups have already noted in their analyses. He fails, yet again, to get to grips with the underlying structural problems caused by the policy decisions of successive governments. Decisions which have led to a low wage economy, and over decades driven poverty and inequality which has benefited businesses at the expense of working people. Existing problems which have severely exacerbated the current unstable economic situation.

It is, however, once again too little and too late. An afterthought for a man who appeared last week for the first time in the Sunday Times Rich List, who seems to have no concept of the difficulties in ordinary people’s lives. Andrew Harrop, of the Fabian Society, described the Chancellor’s measures as a ‘sticking plaster’. We have had a lot of those over the last decade as government austerity has resulted in the inevitable breakdown of public and social infrastructure, and of society and its values. Half-baked policies have glossed over the growing hardship this government has caused by doing nothing except revel in its rhetoric and smoothing over of the truth with its propaganda.

Societal breakdown is not an unavoidable destination, it is the result of the deliberate failure by the government to enact the policies that would keep its citizens safe and secure in a functioning, fair economy and ensure that in hard times it acts to cushion the blows caused by events out of its control. Furthermore, whilst many, with their hearts probably in the right place, talk about creating a fairer welfare system and higher benefits as a way out of this situation, in the long term that is not the answer, and buys into more dependence on the state, which, frankly, has already done its utmost through reforming the welfare system to punish those citizens who find themselves in involuntary unemployment or precarious employment, or unable to work through illness.

The solution lies in creating a fairer society that is predicated on better wages and terms and conditions of employment, not so-called welfare ‘handouts’ to those who are disparagingly referred to as the ‘deserving poor.’ As Hannah Fearn wrote in the Independent this week: ‘Benefits do not support the poorest to live a self-determining and fulfilled life, but trap them in desperate cycles of poverty.’

It also lies in creating a high-quality public service sector, instead of the diminished one we have today, the implementation of a Job Guarantee to support people, as now in this current economic climate, and for those that cannot work, a properly funded social security system which gives people dignity and sufficient income to live on.

It was shameful to note that in his speech, the Chancellor, announcing his spending measures, said that the government would ‘not sit idly by’. That would be laughable if things were not so serious. For over more than ten years, the Conservative government has ‘sat idly by’, as it cut spending on public and social infrastructure to the bone, on the specious lie of unaffordability, couched in narratives of sound finance. This is therefore not a new phenomenon. The price we have paid for that lie as the pandemic raged has been made very clear. The public infrastructure upon which society relies, both in good and bad times, fell short, from the NHS to social care, education, local government and other vital institutions. Everything that binds society together with a cooperative purpose has been whittled away.

The emphasis on balanced budgets to serve an ideologically driven agenda that benefits global corporations rather than delivering public purpose, has led to rising poverty and inequality, which have translated into hunger and the growth of food banks as families have struggled to put food on the table and heat their homes. GIMMS has covered these disturbing subjects endlessly in its MMT Lens, week by week, month by month, year by year, since its launch in 2018. The fractures began in earnest a decade ago, with unnecessary austerity, and a false discourse that governments are limited in their spending policy choices by the tax they collect or what they can borrow, which, in turn, according to the orthodoxy, has consequences for future generations in terms of higher tax burdens. An obscene deception in the light of what has followed, and which arose out of a political choice driven by a pernicious economic ideology, and not financial necessity. It is time to hammer home that the line so often used by Sunak and others is false. The future burdens won’t be tax ones, but human and environmental ones created by governments which have failed consistently to invest today to create a truly productive and sustainable future tomorrow.

The global pandemic which affected and is still affecting production, followed by the outbreak of war in Ukraine, have only served to highlight our strategic planning deficiencies and interdependence. Ukraine and Russia play a major role in global food markets (not to mention oil and gas) which, when increasingly combined with the growing consequences of climate change on food production, with India imposing a ban on wheat exports as severe heatwaves have damaged crops, and East Africa in the grip of a relentless drought, only serves to emphasise the real costs for governments which have prioritised keeping the global corporatised economic order functioning, and the capitalist gravy train, predicated on exploitation, rolling. The tsunami of climate change is bearing down upon us, and yet, the government still sees the future as being defined by increasing growth in consumption, regardless of its impact on the planet. We apparently have to make up for the losses of the last two years, even if that means abandoning our climate promises which now seem to have been lost somewhere in the ether.

Instead of focusing on sound, consistent, long-term strategies to secure food and renewable energy domestically, governments have allowed the global corporate juggernaut to dictate the pace, thus securing its power, influence, and wealth. But as we are belatedly discovering, the ‘Just in Time’ world in which we live has distinct disadvantages. Nature, disease, and geopolitics combined, have exposed the weaknesses of a decaying unipolar economic system, which, until recently, has based its ideas on the finite nature of money and persuaded an unaware public that there is no alternative. A system predicated not on cooperation but on dividing people and allowing, by design, an unfair distribution of real wealth and real resources.

The Global Financial Crash in 2008, the Pandemic and current economic uncertainties have changed all that, and governments have been driven, as a result, to ‘re-discover’ the power of the public purse to manage their economies in the face of the prospect of economic decline, although always with a view to constraining that spending at some future point in time, once an emergency is over. There is always a price to pay on this model of how government spends. But just when Sunak thought he could get back to ‘business as usual’, his plans were scuppered once again by the conflict in Ukraine.

Balancing the books is a perennial concern for all governments, sooner or later. The government should be a good manager of the economy by ensuring that the public and social infrastructure meets the needs of the people it serves, from individuals to communities and businesses, and by aiming to balance its spending with the very real resource constraints, which requires strategic planning. Instead, governments, the media and those working in think tanks, endlessly replay their messages of monetary scarcity which have played a cruel and destructive trick on the population. Such deceitful narratives ultimately constrain the actions that are needed to address poverty, inequality, environmental sustainability and planetary health. Should that, of course, be a government objective. However, these narratives are useful for governments who wish to avoid such actions. It doesn’t bode well for the now seemingly defunct concept of levelling up or addressing the climate emergency.

We are led to believe that government spending is constrained by taxation or borrowing, and the media without fail, reinforces those messages, as Larry Elliott did in an article in the Guardian at the end of April. On the one hand, journalists report the state of public services and other vital infrastructure, relate stories about how people are struggling to keep their heads above water and being obliged to use food banks or switch off their heating, and yet, in the next breath, in an astonishing display of cognitive dissonance, give their readers a blow-by-blow account of the state of the public finances, as if somehow it is of vital importance to know how well the Chancellor is delivering his fiscal objectives. Put the fear of God into a nation by focusing its attention, like a magician, on the wrong subject. It seems that they choose not to make a connection between government spending (or the lack of it) and the state of the nation. Those two things are not disparate subjects, they go together.

As the current government, like the Pied Piper, marches the nation back to Dickensian Britain, journalists should at least be challenging the accepted economic dogma which prevails, rather than reinforcing the message that sound finance trumps public purpose. That should be the role of the media. But then, of course, as Upton Sinclair so rightly observed, ‘It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.

So, given his predilection for household budget accounting, it was not surprising that Rishi Sunak, the arbiter and promoter of sound finance, had to eat his words and do yet another about-turn, by stating that he will be imposing a ‘windfall tax’ on oil and gas companies (well sort of) so he can, as he claims, partly cover his spending pledges. Whilst some Conservatives are critical of the tax, suggesting it will reduce investment and goes against their low tax stance, (at least where the rich corporations are concerned), Labour’s calls over the last few months for a tax on extraordinary profits to help people manage their way through the energy crisis, thus have now been satisfied. Job done. That is, of course, if we believe the notion that has been drilled into the public consciousness that taxes fund government spending.

The government as the currency issuer has the capacity to spend what it needs to, to balance the economy in good times and keep it functioning during economic crises. It doesn’t have to go begging to rich people or large corporations to provide that funding, or impose windfall taxes, and nor does it have to borrow to do the same. That is all part of the smoke and mirrors that have created false narratives. The sequence is spend first, then tax, not the other way around.

The last two decades and more should have proved categorically that household budget economics, in terms of government spending, is a myth. The public is beginning to take note that there is always money to bail out ‘too big to fail’ banks and other large companies, fund wars or address the fallout from pandemics, when it suits the government to do so. As the contradictions become ever clearer, the public are slowly coming to understand the political nature of spending decisions, and that, by the same token, the UK government could, in the same way, create the money to fund public services and vital infrastructure, that poverty and inequality could be addressed to ensure that citizens have dignified and meaningful lives, and that the climate crisis could be tackled through legislation, and targeted spending and taxation policies, to drive change and force businesses to do or die.

As Josh Ryan-Collins, who is an associate professor in economics and finance at the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose wrote in an article in the New Statesmen this week, ‘Government spending power is limited not by tax revenues or borrowing but by the productive capacity of the UK economy and political will.’

Ryan Collins, promoting a new co-authored working paper, ‘The self-financing state: An institutional analysis‘, published by the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP), which provides an in-depth analysis of the mechanics of the key institutions involved in UK government spending, demonstrates clearly in his article that the ‘British state always creates new money when it spends’. That is fundamental to what comes next.  It is the starting point for change.

The self-financing state: An institutional analysis

This paper is an institutional analysis of government expenditure, revenue collection and debt issuance operations in the United Kingdom.

 

So, while Chancellors, politicians, think tanks and journalists indulge in relaying myths that describe how governments spend, and keep the prevailing economic system functioning in the favour of capital, the reality is somewhat different.

A challenge to that understanding and the economic orthodoxy which drives it, is, however, underway.

The World Economic Forum’s meeting in Davos this week has revealed the growing cracks. The realisation by the wealthy elites that the global economic system, which has created vast wealth for the few, whilst at the same time crippling poverty and inequalities in the distribution of real wealth for many others, is under threat. As working people in the global north wake up to their exploitation and the associated injustices, and those in the Global South begin to reject the economic solutions imposed by the north, under the tutelage of the US, its allies and the institutions which it controls – the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation, those that have benefited over decades may, at last, be facing a rude awakening which could force a rethink. Not that one is holding one’s breath! But it should not be surprising that the Establishment which has dictated the rules for decades, feels threatened in this time of flux and uncertainty. Things ‘ain’t what they used to be’ and the certainties are slipping away.

Reuters reported this week that world leaders, financiers and chief executives were leaving Davos with ‘an urgent sense of the need to reboot and redefine globalisation’. Their version of globalisation has, hitherto, not been about real cooperation in the service of humanity, rather it has been the exploitation of human labour and finite resources in the service of greed and profits.  Globalisation has not been about planetary flourishing, it has proved to be the exact opposite, favouring the few, a billionaire class who, as Oxfam pointed out this week, were increasing their fortunes by $1billion every two days. Not because they worked hard but because the system is rigged in their favour. A system which allows them to amass vast resources and pollute the planet with their excesses, while the rest labour in low wage economies as slaves.

Its dominant position has been ably assisted by the notion of monetary scarcity, which has been hugely damaging as countries in the global south have been weighed down by foreign debt and forced to accept punishing bailout regimes, which have, in turn, forced cuts to public spending and decimated public infrastructure. This is the common link between the global north and the global south. The toxic economic system which prevails and leads Sunak to focus on fiscal discipline rather than public purpose.

 

The MMT Podcast with Patricia Pino & Christian Reilly: #131 Fadhel Kaboub: Free Trade Isn’t Free: Food Sovereignty And Why It MattersPatricia and Christian talk to economist and President of the Global Institute For Sustainable Prosperity Professor Fadhel Kaboub about how global food and energy systems have been fostered to benefit the global north at the expense of the global south, and how understanding modern money is vital to…

 

The damage that has been done over decades is incalculable. The events of the past few years have revealed the inherent weaknesses of globalisation and its bedfellow, neoliberalism.

As the effects of climate change, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, combine with the associated loss of biodiversity due to land mismanagement and exploitation, the degradation of soil, resulting from unhealthy farming practices and overuse of herbicides and fertilisers, along with changing global weather patterns, the world faces an uncertain future without adequate urgent action.

Ultimately, the UK does not exist in a bubble and must now see its future actions and policy decisions in a global context, but not the one we know. Not a continuation of the status quo which protects a rotten free trade system and sustains the wealth of the few, but an all-encompassing strategy for human and planetary fulfilment. It is not about pulling up the drawbridge. It is about ensuring that nations can help themselves to ride the economic and climate storms ahead, and work cooperatively to trade fairly and sustainably with their global neighbours.

Some might call this an unachievable pipe dream, given the current instability forged out of a toxic economic system and endless wars for global hegemony, and let’s be honest, theft of real resources. But it doesn’t have to be.

Our future depends on real and substantial change, not tinkering around the edges so that the global elites can maintain their power and influence. It begins with a public understanding of how the government spends, to challenge the status quo and set the scene for creating a fairer world, which has both a sustainable and liveable future. The way ahead may be bumpy but that’s no reason not to try.

 

Announcement

The GIMMS book ‘Modern Monetary Theory: Key Insights, Leading Thinkers‘ – Edited by Professor L. Randall Wray and the Gower Initiative for Modern Money Studies, is scheduled to be published by Edward Elgar Publishing in January 2023

For more details, please see the EE website via the link below:

 Key Insights, Leading Thinkers" draft front coverModern Monetary Theory’This is a fascinating, eclectic group of professional papers in which the reader may explore both the first principles of Modern Monetary Theory and many institutional and historical details that lend weight to the conceptual framework. This book is a landmark in the development of MMT, a boon for…

 

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The post The Government, like the Pied Piper, marches the nation back to Dickensian Britain appeared first on The Gower Initiative for Modern Money Studies.

Reblog – No, MMT Didn’t Wreck Sri Lanka

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun, 15/05/2022 - 8:37pm in

Debunking Bloomberg with Fadhel Kaboub

Written by Stephanie Kelton

Originally published on Stephanie Kelton’s “The Lens” on 29th April 2022.

Two poor men sitting on a trolley on a street of closed shops. Petta, Colombo, Sri LankaImage by Harshabad on Pixabay

Last week, Bloomberg touted an opinion piece (written by one of its regular columnists) claiming that “Sri Lanka was the first country in the world to try MMT” and that “the experiment has brought the country to ruin.” A few days later, The Washington Post republished the article. So it garnered a fair bit of attention. Unfortunately, the essay offers little insight into what’s really gone wrong in Sri Lanka. But, hey, editors and writers have discovered that MMT drives clicks, so there’s no dearth of efforts to shoehorn MMT into almost anything.

A number of people sent me the link and asked me to respond. I sat down to do just that, but then I remembered that MMT economist Fadhel Kaboub talks about Sri Lanka in some of his presentations and that he’s been studying the country for years.

Fadhel is an Associate Professor of Economics at Denison University and President of the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity. He brings deeper knowledge of the Sri Lankan economy and the policy decisions that have paved the way for their current predicament. So I reached out to invite him to respond to Mihir Sharma’s main claims about the so-called MMT experiment in Sri Lanka.

Sharma’s big claim is that “two cherished heterodox theories…became official policy in Sri Lanka and, within two years, they brought the country to the brink of default and ruin.” The government has halted payments of its foreign debt and warned that it may default. Import prices are surging. It’s hard for people to buy food and fuel. There are periodic blackouts and rationing. Inflation is close to 19 per cent and the central bank has recently doubled interest rates. Sharma acknowledges that there are ’structural factors’ at play, and he concedes that the pandemic hammered the nation’s tourism sector while the Russian invasion of Ukraine made everything worse. But he argues that “the deeper problem” is that the ruling elite “turned Sri Lanka’s policymaking over to cranks.” One of the heterodox theories that is supposedly responsible for the crisis is MMT.[1] What follows is a lightly-edited transcript of my Q&A with Professor Kaboub.

KELTON: Sharma claims that “Sri Lanka is the first country in the world to reference MMT officially as a justification for money printing.” He blames former central bank governor, Weligamage Don Lakshman, for listening to monetary cranks who convinced him that “nobody needs to worry about debt sustainability” as long as you “increase the proportion of domestic debt [relative to debt denominated in foreign currency].” Is there anything in MMT that says that as long as you “increase the proportion of domestic debt” you can “print money” without worrying about debt sustainability or inflation?

KABOUB: When I first read the statement of Sri Lanka’s Central Bank governor, Mr Weligamage Don Lakshman, back in 2020, it was very clear to me that he does not understand the basic MMT insights. He was under the impression that what matters in terms of monetary sovereignty is the proportion of foreign currency debt relative to domestic currency debt and that there was no need to rethink the foundation of the economic development model that his country has used since the late 1970s. Governor Lakshman focused on the proportion of debt but never questioned what the external debt was fueling, and never articulated how a higher proportion of domestic debt was going to build economic resilience in Sri Lanka.

MMT economists have been very clear all along that a country’s fiscal spending capacity is constrained by the risk of inflation, which is determined by the level of productive capacity (availability of real resources, productivity, skills, logistics, supply chains, etc.) and the level of abusive market power enjoyed by key players in the economy (cartels, exclusive import license holders, shell companies, cross-border traffickers, speculators, corrupt government procurement systems, etc.). Therefore, increasing a country’s fiscal policy space must be done via strategic investments to boost productive capacity and regulation of abusive market power. Sri Lanka’s economic policy choices (pre-pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war) do not even come close to what MMT economists would have suggested.

As I will explain below, Sri Lanka has three structural economic weaknesses that were systematically reinforced via mainstream economic policies: 1.) lack of food sovereignty, 2.) lack of energy sovereignty, and 3.) low value-added exports. These deficiencies imply that accelerating the country’s economic engines leads to more pressure on its external balance, a weaker exchange rate, higher inflationary pressures (especially food/fuel/medicine and basic necessities), and, as a result, it leads to the classic trap of external debt.

Here is how it all started. Sri Lanka, like many countries in the Global South, began the liberalization of its economy in 1977, and adopted a classic IMF-style economic development model based on exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), tourism, and remittances. This development model remained tamed during the civil war (1983-2009), but it was fully unleashed in 2009, and that is when external debt began to skyrocket, going from $16 billion in 2008 to nearly $56 billion in 2019. The value of the Sri Lankan rupee dropped from 114 to 178 LCU/USD. Thanks to a massive increase in government subsidies and transfers reaching more than 30 per cent of government spending in recent years, Sri Lanka struggled to keep inflation below 5 per cent. Yet, economists celebrated Sri Lanka’s great achievements with an average growth rate exceeding 5 per cent in the decade after the civil war, and a real per capita GDP growth putting the country officially in the upper-middle-income economy category. Sri Lanka was following the mainstream economic development model like a good student. In the decade starting in 2009, exports grew from $9.3 to $19.1 billion, tourism quintupled from 0.5 to 2.5 million visitors annually, FDI inflows quadrupled by 2018 to a record $1.6 billion, and remittances doubled to nearly $7 billion annually. These are the four engines of Sri Lanka’s economic growth, but they are also the engines driving the country deeper into the structural traps of food and energy dependency, and specialization in low value-added exports.

Here is how these engines constitute a trap. An increase in tourism induces more food and energy imports. An increase in remittances means more brain drain. An increase in low value-added exports induces more imports of capital, intermediate goods, fuel etc.; and an increase in low value-added FDI does the same plus the repatriation of profits out of Sri Lanka. On a global scale, these neocolonial economic traps have suctioned $152 trillion from the Global South since 1960.

KELTON: Sharma argues that it was the “printing of money” that caused inflation to hit record highs. He cites the rate of growth of the Sri Lankan money supply and concludes that inflation hit record highs because the central bank expanded the money supply by 42 per cent from December 2019 to August 2021. Why isn’t this a critique of MMT, and how do you think about the current inflationary pressures?

KABOUB: Sharma is wrong on two fronts here. First, he is assuming that the central bank actually controls the money supply, when in fact the money supply is an endogenous variable determined by the private sector (consumers, business, and banks). The central bank simply accommodates the needs of the market in order to keep short-term interest rates at a stable target, otherwise it will cause all kinds of instability across financial markets. Second, Sharma is assuming that inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply, when in reality, Sri Lanka’s inflation, like many developing countries, imports its inflation via food and energy imports. The higher the pressure on the external balance, the weaker the exchange rate, the higher the inflation pressure from imported goods. Sri Lanka struggled with these pressures for a decade, and managed to muddle through by accumulating more external debt, which quickly became unbearable after the pandemic (loss of tourism, remittances, FDI, and export revenues) and the massive increase in global food and energy prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The solutions to Sri Lanka’s inflation problems are not in the hands of its central bank. Raising interest rates in Sri Lanka will not end the war in Ukraine, or end the pandemic-induced global supply chain disruptions. The most effective anti-inflation tools fall under fiscal policy. It is the parliament, and the various ministries and commissions that can design strategic investments to boost productive capacity, and have the legal authority to update and enforce antitrust laws. In fact, raising interest rates can often fuel inflation (and inequality) because it is the equivalent of an income subsidy to bond holders, and a tax on actual investors who might be discouraged from increasing productive capacity

KELTON: Sharma appears to know that he has offered a faulty representation of MMT. He anticipates some of the counterpoints that I suspect you and I would both raise. He writes, “proponents of MMT will likely say that this was not real MMT, or that Sri Lanka is not a sovereign country as long as it has any foreign debt.” You have been studying Sri Lanka for a few years now. What, if anything, have policymakers done that suggest that they have been running any kind of “MMT experiment” over the last two years?

KABOUB: Well, this is where Sharma nails it! As I explained above, Sri Lanka’s economic policies don’t even come close to anything informed by MMT insights. Sri Lanka’s government ignored its structural weaknesses, didn’t invest in food/energy and strategic domestic productive capacity, didn’t tax/regulate abusive market power, has a corrupt political system dominated by a single family, and when it was backed into a corner after the pandemic, it doubled down on bad economic decision by claiming that agricultural fertilizers are unhealthy (when they really didn’t have the foreign exchange reserves to pay for the imports), so they destroyed agricultural output, especially rice, in the middle of global food crisis. If the Sri Lankan government was serious about investing in healthy food or a healthy economy, it would have put forward an actual food sovereignty strategy centred on native seeds, it would have discouraged intensive monoculture farming, it would have invested in regenerative farming to undo decades of damage to the soil, and it would have supported farmers to increase yields with well-defined medium and long term strategies. Clearly, this “organic farming” experiment was sloppy at best, but it should not overshadow the fact that the roots of the agricultural vulnerability have been decades in the making.

KELTON: Sharma chides the government for shunning the advice of “mainstream economists” and for “refusing to even consult the IMF.” Let’s assume he’s right about the central bank and other policymakers turning away from mainstream economists and institutions like the IMF. What kind of advice has the IMF given to Sri Lanka in the past, and what kind of economic development strategies would you recommend if officials called on you to advise them?

KABOUB: Sri Lanka has been following the IMF instruction manual for decades. It has received 16 loans from the IMF since the 1960s, and it is currently negotiating another one. Since 1996, Sri Lanka has never been away from the IMF’s negotiating table for more than 3 or 4 years at a time. Despite the political rhetoric of the Sri Lankan government over the last couple of years, the current Sri Lankan administration has abided by the IMF’s terms and conditions of the $1.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (that’s the 16th loan disbursed between 2016-2020). So maybe the Sri Lankan government has come to realize that the IMF instruction manual is actually harmful. The problem is that they don’t fully understand why, and they certainly haven’t identified an alternative strategy to escape from this trap.

In terms of policy advice, Sri Lanka needs emergency assistance with immediate shipments of food, fuel, medicine, and basic necessities. Sri Lanka needs debt relief rather than debt restructuring. For example, UNDP has recently recommended negotiating debt-for-nature swaps. There are other debt swap mechanisms such as debt-for-development, debt-for-equity, and debt-buy backs. The Sri Lankan central bank should be negotiating FX swap line agreements with the central banks of its major trading partners in order to stabilize the value of its currency.

Sri Lanka should also access the IMF’s newly created $45 billion Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RTS), which, unlike other IMF facilities, is actually a program that funds strategic investments to build resilience and promote sustainability. Sri Lanka would qualify for up to $1.4 billion of concessional loans with substantial grace periods. However, to qualify for RTS funds, Sri Lanka must first have an existing agreement with the IMF. It needs to enter these negotiations with its own strategic vision in order to escape the IMF’s austerity and external debt trap.

The IMF wants countries to establish an economic policy framework that leads to external debt sustainability, but its track record has been a miserable failure. Sri Lanka needs to convince the IMF and other lenders and strategic partners, that it can only escape this external debt trap if it tackles the problem at its source — e.g. by investing strategically in food sovereignty (with an actual long-term strategy rather than half-baked organic farming wishful thinking), investing in renewable energy capacity (energy efficiency, public transportation, etc.), investing in education and vocational training in order to climb up the value chain in the manufacturing sector, and becoming more selective in its support for export industries and FDI projects. In other words, ending the race to the bottom policies, and building resilience to external shocks.

These strategic investments must be coupled with an actual democratization of the political as well as the economic system. The government needs to crack down on corruption, cartels, abusive price setters, and entities that enjoy exclusive economic power and have every incentive to object to the strategic investments listed above.

The sad part of this story is that Sri Lanka is only one of many countries in the Global South facing the same structural traps, struggling with unbearable external debt, soaring food and energy prices, shortages, and rising social and political tensions.

 

[1] The other has to do with a shift toward organic farming that has apparently fueled a precipitous drop in crop yields, farming incomes, and export revenues.

 

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The post Reblog – No, MMT Didn’t Wreck Sri Lanka appeared first on The Gower Initiative for Modern Money Studies.

Supriya Chaudhuri, Significant Lives: biography, autobiography, gender, and women's history in South Asia

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 19/11/2019 - 12:25am in

Chaired by Elleke Boehmer.

How to write a southern life: Ethics and writing practices

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 19/11/2019 - 12:22am in

Eduardo Lalo, Elleke Boehmer, Jonny Steinberg and Premilla Nadasen give a talk for the Southern Biographies event. Chaired by, Hélène Neveu Kringelbach.

Southern Biographies: epistemologies, methodologies, theoretical perspectives

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 18/11/2019 - 9:37pm in

Joy Owen, Marcio Goldman, Ramon Sarro and Santanu Das give talks as part of the Southern Biographies event. Chaired, Thomas Cousins.

What is the Modern? Temporality, Aesthetics, and Global Melancholy

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 10/04/2019 - 1:06am in

This talk from TORCH Global South Visiting Professor Supriya Chaudhuri will interrogate the temporality of the modern, the aesthetics of the modern, and as a somewhat cryptic afterthought, the mood of the modern, here categorized as melancholy. But it will also ask how this term travels, how it is translated between cultures, and what it means in specific contexts of use.

The terms ‘modern’ and ‘modernity’ are notorious, global itinerants, on the one hand associated with a narrative of power, and on the other with a profoundly asymmetrical reading of history, producing its own internal disjuncture through the tendency of ‘aesthetic modernity’ to deny or refuse history, and to produce a characteristic, melancholic, ‘hollowing-out’ of the world of technological modernization.

How are these terms, and the narratives associated with them, read back in contexts of translation or re-use? Professor Chaudhuri will look at some examples from 19th and 20th century India to examine how the term ‘modern’ is translated, understood, and incorporated into aesthetic and social practice.