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For Safer Streets, Invest in Community Anti-Violence Groups

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 28/09/2020 - 9:00pm in

Photo Credit: Street Corner Resources Recent months have seen unprecedentedly widespread protests of police violence against Black people. Unthinkable just...

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Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 in the Region

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 27/08/2020 - 9:00pm in

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, Richard Deitz, and Jonathan Hastings

Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 in the Region

The New York Fed today unveiled a set of charts that track COVID-19 cases in the Federal Reserve’s Second District, which includes New York, Northern New Jersey, Fairfield County Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These charts, available in the Indicators section of our Regional Economy webpage, are updated daily with the latest data on confirmed COVID-19 cases from The New York Times, which compiles information from state and local health agencies. Case counts are measured as the seven-day average of new reported daily cases and are presented on a per capita basis to allow comparisons to the nation and between communities in the region. Recent data indicate that after spiking to extraordinary levels in April, new cases have remained relatively low and stable in and around New York City. Cases didn’t reach nearly as high in upstate New York, and have held fairly low in recent weeks. By contrast, cases have been trending higher in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands since mid-July.

New York City Area

The New York City metro area emerged as the epicenter of the pandemic a few months ago. As the chart below shows, the seven-day average of daily new cases reached a level of about 65 per 100,000 population in New York City in mid-April. For comparison, the same measure for the United States overall has not exceeded much more than 20, even during its recent peak in mid-July. In terms of the spread of the disease, some of the counties surrounding New York City may have fared even worse than the City itself: Long Island and the northern suburbs (Orange, Rockland, and Westchester counties) peaked at around 90 new cases per 100,000 in mid-April, while Northern New Jersey peaked in the upper 50s around the same time. All of these peaks were likely understated, to varying degrees, given that they occurred in the early spring, when testing was more hampered by lack of availability. As of mid-August, all areas within the New York City Metro Area have been doing much better, with rates steadily below 5 daily new cases per 100,000, well below the U.S. average of around 15.

LSE_2020_covid-regional-data_deitz_ch1

Upstate New York, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands

New cases never reached such highs in upstate New York as they did in the New York City metro area, nor did they in Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands (so much so that we use different scales on these charts than those used for the New York City area). As the chart below shows, the Buffalo metro area and the Albany metro area both neared 15 daily new cases per 100,000 in late April, but most of upstate New York has stayed under 10. New case counts were particularly low and relatively stable in Ithaca and Watertown. New daily cases are now under 5 per 100,000 in all upstate metro areas.

LSE_2020_covid-regional-data_deitz_ch2

As shown below, case counts were quite low in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands until mid-July, but rates have recently trended upward, particularly in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The recent flare-up is most pronounced in the tourist areas of St. Thomas and San Juan, where new cases have recently reached over 50 and 25, respectively.

LSE_2020_covid-regional-data_deitz_ch3

It should be noted that there are some shortcomings to this measure of the incidence of COVID-19. The number of new infections is likely understated, since cases are counted only if people get a test. Further, testing may lag relative to when the infection occurred, depending on when the test is taken and how long it takes to get the results. And the availability and accuracy of tests may vary across states and localities. Despite these shortcomings, daily new case counts expressed on a per capita basis is an effective metric for tracking the spread of COVID-19 in the region.

As the coronavirus pandemic unfolds, we will continue to monitor economic conditions in the region and provide timely updates as additional data and information become available. You can visit our Regional Economy website for more information useful in tracking economic conditions in the region.

Note: The New York Times raw data for COVID-19 cases are available on Github.

Abel_jaison

Jaison R. Abel is an assistant vice president in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Bram_jason
Jason Bram is a research officer in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group.

Deitz_richard

Richard Deitz is an assistant vice president in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group.

Hastings_jonathan
Jonathan Hastings is a research associate in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group.

How to cite this post:

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, Richard Deitz, and Jonathan Hastings, “Tracking the Spread of COVID-19 in the Region,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, August 27, 2020, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/08/tracking-the-sprea....




Disclaimer

The views expressed in this post are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author.

Fresh audio product

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 26/06/2020 - 8:09am in

Just added to my radio archive (click on date for link):

June 25, 2020 Nikhil Pal Singh on race, class, policing, protest • Michael Kinnucan of Brooklyn DSA’s electoral committee on left victories in the NYC primary elections

Revisiting Rosedale

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 22/06/2020 - 12:07pm in

After a clip from Rosedale, a 1976 Bill Moyers film documenting racial tension in one New York City community, went viral on social media, New York Times reporter Sarah Maslin Nir tracked down the young Black girls — now grown women — who were terrorized by a mob of white children 45 years ago. Continue reading

The post Revisiting Rosedale appeared first on BillMoyers.com.

Finally, Some Signs of Improvement in the Regional Economy

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 16/06/2020 - 10:30pm in

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, Richard Deitz, and Benjamin G. Hyman

LSE_2020_jr-econ-improvement_deitz_460

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June business surveys show some signs of improvement in the regional economy. Following two months of unprecedented decline due to the coronavirus pandemic, indicators of business activity point to a slower pace of contraction in the service sector and signs of a rebound in the manufacturing sector. Even more encouraging, as the regional economy has begun to reopen, many businesses have started to recall workers who were laid off or put on furlough since the start of the pandemic. Some have even hired new workers. Moreover, businesses expect to recall even more workers over the next month. Looking ahead, firms have become increasingly optimistic that conditions will improve in the coming months.

The Free Fall Has Stopped

After a period of sharp deterioration that began in early March, business conditions finally appear to be firming in June, according to respondents of our Business Leaders Survey, which covers service firms in the New York-Northern New Jersey region, and our Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which covers manufacturing firms in New York State. The headline index for the Business Leaders Survey climbed 36 points but remained well below zero, indicating ongoing decline in the service sector, though at a much slower pace than over the past few months. Declines continue to be particularly widespread in the transportation and warehousing, leisure and hospitality, and finance sectors. Despite these declines, roughly one in five service firms noted a increase in business in June, most prominently among respondents in the information and retail sectors. The headline index for the Empire Survey increased nearly 50 points to near zero, indicating activity stabilized in the region’s manufacturing sector.

Employment Has Turned the Corner

Perhaps more encouraging, employment in the region appears to have begun to improve. In supplemental questions, we asked businesses about their employment levels in February (before the pandemic), at their low point during the current downturn, and presently. Nearly half of all businesses reduced their workforce during the pandemic, though these cuts were substantially more prevalent in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality and retail sectors. Across all firms, our survey suggests that employment declined by 18 percent in the service sector and 15 percent in the manufacturing sector at the lowest point of the downturn.

With the gradual reopening of more nonessential businesses throughout the region over the past month, a number of firms have started to recall workers who were let go and some have hired new workers. Indeed, about two-thirds of businesses that reduced their workforce indicate that employment has picked up since hitting its low point. Thus far, however, service firms have only recalled about 15 percent of their laid-off workers, while manufacturers have recalled almost half.

A small number of new workers have been added to payroll in both sectors. New hires were strongest among administrative support firms, while businesses in that industry, as well as in wholesale trade and construction, reported the strongest degree of recalls. Although progress has been made, employment in the region remains well below pre-pandemic levels even with the job growth that has occurred thus far. Fortunately, businesses in both sectors plan to recall additional workers, with firms expecting to have rehired more than half of the workers who were let go since the start of the pandemic over the next month.

The Outlook Has Improved

Looking ahead, businesses in the region expressed optimism that conditions would improve over the next six months, though from extremely low levels. The Business Leaders Survey’s index for future business conditions climbed well into positive territory, led by retail, leisure and hospitality, and transportation and warehousing—which were some of the hardest-hit sectors—as well as real estate. Similarly, the comparable index for the Empire Survey jumped to its highest level in more than a decade. With businesses starting to bring back workers, and more hires expected in the months ahead, there are signs that the regional economy is headed in a positive direction after plunging during the depths of the pandemic. We will continue to monitor economic conditions in the region, and provide timely updates as additional data and information become available. You can visit our Regional Economy website for more information useful in tracking the region’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Jaison R. AbelJaison R. Abel is an assistant vice president in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group.

Jason BramJason Bram is a research officer in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group.

Richard DeitzRichard Deitz is an assistant vice president in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group.

Benjamin G. Hyman

Benjamin G. Hyman is an economist in the Bank’s Research and Statistics Group.

Related Reading

The Coronavirus Shock Looks More like a Natural Disaster than a Cyclical Downturn

How to cite this post:

Jaison R. Abel, Jason Bram, Richard Deitz, and Benjamin G. Hyman, “Finally, Some Signs of Improvement in the Regional Economy,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Liberty Street Economics, June 16, 2020, https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/06/finally-some-signs....




Disclaimer

The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.