Real estate

AOC Rental Woes a Reminder of Worsening Conditions for Workers

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 12/11/2018 - 7:27pm in

Rising rental costs put a spotlight on how it is even harder than ever for ordinary workers to get by.

Mischaracterizing HAMP and Principal Reduction: A Regression Discontinuity Test Error

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Fri, 02/11/2018 - 7:07pm in

Explaining a fundamental error in a widely-touted paper on HAMP modifications.

What’s the Problem with Financialization?

Some of the analytical sleights of hand used to promote the ideology of financializatation.

“Fatally Flawed” Paper on HAMP Mortgage Program Gets Program Design Backwards, Botches Regression Analysis, Yielding Propagandistic Findings

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 31/10/2018 - 8:11pm in

How a new paper on HAMP manages, by not understanding the program. to whitewash it as well as promote financialization.

Michael Hudson: Rescuing the Banks Instead of the Economy

Michael Hudson on his themes of how banks are mainly funding real estate rather than the economy and the problem of failing to write down debt that can't be repaid.

Michael Olenick: The Real Story of “MAGA Bomber” Cesar Sayoc’s Foreclosure

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 29/10/2018 - 9:00pm in

A key piece of stripper-turned-MAGA bomber Cesar Sayoc's slide into financial ruin.

Sydney Faces Crash In Conversations About Housing Prices

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 24/10/2018 - 11:46am in

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The amount of conversations about housing prices reached a 10-year low at barbecues all around Sydney on the weekend, a sign that the housing conversation boom may be over.

“Spring is usually the peak time for wankers to boast about how good a return they’ve been getting on their investment properties,” reported chief chit chat analyst Steve Prattle from Deloittes. “Even after adjusting for seasonal factors such as talk about the Wentworth by-election and whether the Honey Badger should have picked at least someone, clearances of incredulous blather about the price for a two bedder in Minto was down by 34%.”

The figures have brought some relief for young talkers eager to get into the conversation but without even a horror story about getting beaten at an auction to contribute to the general ebb and flow of blather.

Experts are urging caution about suggestions that housing conversations will fall back down to 1980s levels, where most social interactions revolved around cricket, the latest fashion in flouro shirts with “Choose Life” written on them and Bob Hawke imitations.

“We’ll probably never see a return to the 1985 peak year where 45% of conversation was about which characters would be making a comeback in the next Police Academy movie,” said conversation developer Celia Yakitty. “I think we may see a correction in the water cooler conversation market with more people willing to start a dialogue about what schools to send the kids to and how satisfied they are with their spoodle.”

Peter Green
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Man Whose Mexico Beach House Was One of Last Standing After Hurricane Michael Calls Out Climate Denier Politicians

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 22/10/2018 - 8:55pm in

This is Naked Capitalism fundraising week. 1441 donors have already invested in our efforts to combat corruption and predatory conduct, particularly in the financial realm. Please join us and participate via our donation page, which shows how to give via check, credit card, debit card, or PayPal. Read about why we’re doing this fundraiser and […]

Richard Murphy: Who Really Pays the Tax on Rents?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 17/10/2018 - 8:37pm in

Clearing up a widespread misperception about tax.

No, really; everything's fine

Published by Matthew Davidson on Fri, 05/10/2018 - 10:01am in

Among the headlines in the AFR Real Estate section this morning:

So, soft landing?: "Allianz-owned PIMCO, like many analysts, expects a decline in overall housing prices of 10 per cent over the next couple of years and says the market slowdown engineered by macroprudential regulator APRA does not indicate a crash likely to threaten financial stability."

What's happened since the last time I looked at private sector debt to GDP ratios? Not much, but something:


If you zoom in on the post-GDP period (caution: non-zero y-axis origin ahead):

(Source: BIS total credit statistics)

Usual disclaimer: This is the rear mirror view. Only part of the picture, and systemic crises may be closer than they appear. The fall in the total since 2016 is entirely due to the corporate sector; the situation for households is no better than a couple of years ago. To get household debt down in the face of falling property values (which should never have been allowed - indeed encouraged - to get that high in the first place) somebody has to do some spending to both raise GDP and the income necessary for repayment of household debt. Corporations won't do it; they are delevering. Households can't do it; they have debt, not savings.

The government must step in to fill the spending gap by increasing benefits and decreasing taxes on households, and by employing (lots of) people. If they don't, the best outcome will be a continuation of the post-GFC new normal of stagnation and unnecessary hardship. As far as I can see, an Australian domestic mortgage-backed crash is no less likely in 2018/19 than in 2016, and the qualitative evidence (not least: sanguine predictions by very smart people with very vested interests, designed to quell restive animal spirits) points in the same direction.

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