Recovery

Error message

Deprecated function: The each() function is deprecated. This message will be suppressed on further calls in _menu_load_objects() (line 579 of /var/www/drupal-7.x/includes/menu.inc).

Regions vulnerable to the end of jobkeeper

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 11/05/2021 - 10:15am in

Tags 

economic, Recovery

Australia continues to recover strongly from the impact of COVID-19 but the recovery phase varies from region to region. In this update, Rob identifies regions that may be vulnerable to the end of JobKeeper. 

If you are keen to learn more about this release for your LGA, please feel free to get in touch. This blog is written to support our suite of economic tools and services that inform economic development strategies and COVID-19 recovery planning. Learn more here.

What is the employment loss from the end of JobKeeper?

The conclusion of JobKeeper in March 2021 is expected to have a significant impact on the labour market over the next few quarters. In our consulting projects for Local Government we have developed a number of indicators to look at the vulnerability of a region to the end of JobKeeper. One of the indicators we have used recently1,2 is the change in hours worked compared with the change in employment. The gap between the two indicators shows the positive impact of JobKeeper in supporting employment).

This vulnerability indicator may underestimate the JobKeeper impact as there are a range of reasons why hours worked didn’t fall even further. (e.g. the usual role of an employee changed from customer service to other roles such as delivery or building maintenance). Nevertheless, it is a useful indicator to look at the vulnerability of regions post JobKeeper.

At a national level, hours worked was down 0.92% in February 2021. Employment however had recovered to its March 2020 level. This suggests that JobKeeper was supporting around 124,000 jobs in February 2021. The strong improvement in hours worked in March was encouraging and suggests that the employment loss from the conclusion of JobKeeper may end up being at the lower end (or even below) of the Treasury estimate of 100,000 to 150,000 workers3.

!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}();

Which regions are vulnerable to the end of JobKeeper?

The same methodology can be applied to labour force regions across Australia to identify regions vulnerable to the end of JobKeeper (i.e. have the largest gap between the change in hours worked and employment).

Looking at the table below we see that Greater Melbourne is most vulnerable with the extended shutdown in Victoria taking its toll. In Greater Melbourne, hours worked was down 7.2 per cent since February 2020, whilst employment was down by 3.8 per cent. Regional Queensland appears vulnerable as well with many tourism regions like the Gold Coast and Cairns Region still impacted by border closures and a drop in international visitors.

But the recovery is uneven across the country with the ACT and Greater Hobart now back to their pre-COVID position for both hours worked and employed.

!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}();

The sub-regions (SA4s) that appear to be the most vulnerable from the end of JobKeeper include:

  • Melbourne North West (VIC)
  • Murray (NSW)
  • Manudarah (WA)
  • Cairns (QLD)

The next update of regional labour force data will tell us more about the recovery post Feburary 2021. Stay tuned.

Why does this matter?

Understanding what is happening in your local economy is a critical step in developing strategies that target local issues. Monitoring the recovery allows decision makers to make informed decisions about where to focus their efforts and which sectors, precincts and community groups still need support.

.id is keen to contribute what we can to making more informed decisions in this important field. economy.id provides a wealth of information to help you identify how vulnerable your region is to the economic downturn so you can prioritise programs and investment in the right areas. This includes information about:

  • Unemployment Rate
  • Job and GRP estimates updated quarterly
  • Industry performance
  • Business entries and exits
  • JobSeeker (available on profile.id)

If you are keen to learn more about how to use economy.id to inform your recovery plan or economic development activities, please get in touch. We have also developed a suite of economic tools, consulting services and insights that inform economic development strategies and COVID-19 recovery planning. Learn more here.

Footnotes

proposed by Professor Jeff Borland

2 This is also well explained in Westpac’s Deeper Insights on the Australian Labour Market.

Treasury estimate of 100,000 to 150,000 workers.

 

Quarterly Economic Data shows the impact of COVID-19 on local jobs

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 28/04/2021 - 1:25pm in

Tags 

Recovery

Australia’s economy continues to recover strongly from the impact of COVID-19, but as this blog shows, the job impacts of COVID-19 varies from region to region. In this update, Rob identifies the Local Government Areas most impacted by COVID-19 using the recently released Quarterly Economic Data presented on economy.id. If you are keen to learn more about this release for your LGA, please feel free to get in touch. This blog is written to support our suite of economic tools and services that inform economic development strategies and COVID-19 recovery planning. Learn more here.

With something like 200 councils using economy.id over the past 10 years or so, we are getting many questions about:

  • “what is the impact of COVID-19 on our local economy?”
  • “can you tell us more about recent trends?”
  • “what information do you have to help us develop a recovery plan?”

These requests are becoming more urgent as Economic Development takes a lead role in the economic recovery of communities.

In response to these questions, .id, with our partners NIEIR, have released quarterly economic data for all Local Government Areas in Australia, providing insights into the economic impacts of COVID-19. This release provides the only dataset in Australia about the GRP and Local Job impact of COVID-19 at the Local Government Area level.

Where did we see significant job decline?

The nature and duration of impacts from COVID-19 varies significantly from location to location. The largest impact in the June Quarter 2020 were in metropolitan areas (social distancing impacts) and in tourism destinations (border closures). As shown in the table below, Bayside (NSW), home to Sydney Airport, experienced the largest impact with jobs down by 12 per cent in the June Quarter 2020. Tourist destinations like Douglas (QLD), Noosa (QLD), Blue Mountain (NSW), Victoria Park (WA) were also hard hit.

Perhaps surprisingly, Nillumbik (VIC) was the only Victorian LGA in the top 20 hardest hit. This was because many areas in Victoria had rebounded strongly from the initial fall in April 2020 meaning that the June Quarter impact was only moderate. The September Quarter impacts (available soon) however will show a different story with the Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria having a significant impact across the State.

Search for the impact on your LGA in the table below.

!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");t&&(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}}))}();

How to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on your economy?

This quarterly economic data is presented in economy.id and provides an effective way of assessing the local impact of COVID-19. The Quarterly economic data is available from the main heading under ‘Quarterly Economic Indicators’. From this page you can look at how the economy has changed over time, identify the impact of COVID-19 and compare the impact to other benchmark regions. This data is drawn from NIEIR, and uses the same model that is developed for the Annual Economic Series which was updated in March 2021.

 

Where to find quarterly data on economy.id

https://blog.id.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Quarterly-data-1.mp4

Using our tools and services to inform your recovery plan

Provision of quarterly data is the latest enhancement designed to provide the local area evidence base, enabling council officers to spend their time on the policy work, decision making and strategic planning. economy.id also provides a wealth of related information to help build your recovery plan and make informed decisions. If you are keen to learn more about how to use economy.id to inform your recovery plan or economic development activities, please feel free to get in touch. We have also developed a suite of economic tools, consulting services and insights that inform economic development strategies and COVID-19 recovery planning. Learn more here.