South Korea

COVID19: Are ventilators killing people?

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 07/05/2020 - 7:00am in

Intubation and ventilation were billed as the only way to treat Covid19 patients in the early days of the outbreak, but now some medical professionals are questioning the practice.

Health Expert Predicts Government Tardiness Could Lead to 40,000 Deaths from Virus

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Sun, 19/04/2020 - 10:42pm in

Zelo Street has already covered this story, but it was also reported in yesterday’s I for Saturday, 18th April 2020. The global health expert, Anthony Costello has told a group of MPs that Johnson’s failure to tackle the virus quickly could lead to as many as 40,000 people dying from it. The article by Jane Clinton, ‘UK ‘too slow’ to react to virus and set for second wave, expert warns’, runs

A leading global health expert has accused the Government of being too slow to acton the outbreak and warned that the death toll in the UK could reach 40,000.

Professor Anthony Costello, of University College London’s Institute for Global Health, told a committee of MPs that the “harsh reality” is that “we were too slow with a number of things” and that “further waves” of the disease could mean Britain suffers the highest death toll in Europe.

He said: “This wave could see 40,000 deaths by the time it’s over. If we’re going to suppress the chain of transmission of this virus in the next stage we all hope that the national lockdown and social distancing will bring about a large suppression of the epidemic so far – but we’re going to face further waves. 

“And so we need to make sure that we have a system in place that cannot just do a certain number of tests in the laboratory, but has a system at district and community level.”

Professor Costello, a former official with the World Health Organisation, has previously said that the could be as many as 10 waves of the virus.

Giving evidence to the Commons Health and Social Care Committee, he cautioned that there should not be “any blame at this stage” but that “we can make sure in the second wave we’re not too slow.”

The criticism came as Austria’s Health Minister, Rudolf Anschober, said that the number of new cases of Covid-19 in the UK was “frightening” other EU states.

Zelo Street’s article comments on a piece in the Torygraph, which states that new research has dealt a severe blow to hopes of herd immunity. The Torygraph article also reported Costello’s suggestion that there could be eight or ten waves of the virus, killing as many as 40,000 people. But Zelo Street adds the further comments Prof Costello made on Twitter. Costello attack Matt Hancock’s refusal to let the British people know the process for lifting the lockdown, when the South Korean government had a website that contains all the details on the virus in their country. He called for the government to discuss plans for a restoration of community testing and contact tracing, digital apps to aid monitoring and quarantine, the policy of ‘flattening the curve’ should be abandoned, as this implied a commitment to further herd immunity and thus more deaths. He also wanted more volunteers to come forward as a ‘community protective shield’.

Prof Costello also condemned the Government’s policy that could lead to 40,000 deaths. There was no modelling of early testing, a suspension of community tests and contact tracing on March 12, and a two-weeks delay in the implementation of social distancing and lockdown. And he told Observer journo Carole Cadwalladr

“So we are heading up towards over forty thousand deaths. That will make us two hundred times higher than [South] Korea. It could easily put us in first place for the world, although I think the US may rival us for that rate. So this is the worst public health catastrophe of the last century. We have to ask questions about why it’s happened.” Matt Hancock’s job just became a little more challenging.

Zelo Street commented that he was just the latest expert to contradict the opinions of the right-wing, free market supporting media class, and wondered how long it would be before they realised that their tactics of misinformation and lies wouldn’t work on an enemy that couldn’t be demonised into silence. He concluded

‘Prof Costello is another to have done us – and the Government – a great service. Maybe we should start listening to experts – and put the boo-boys in the bin where they belong.’

https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2020/04/another-expert-pans-government.html

A possible death toll of 40,000 people, 200 times that of South Korea. And all because Boris and the Tories were determined to run down the NHS in order to create an absolute free market economy.

Whatever Professor Costello says about not blaming anyone, that’s an indictment. Even if, as we all hope, this disease doesn’t carry off that many.

 

 

Pandemic: The South Korean Case

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Wed, 01/04/2020 - 5:12am in

Every American needs to understand the chilling implications of the graph below. Click on a country to see the different rates at which COVID-19 infections are increasing: Look at the US line on the graph of “Which Countries are Flattening … Continue reading

The post Pandemic: The South Korean Case appeared first on BillMoyers.com.

Tory Cuts Destroyed Our Preparedness Against Pandemic Threat

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Mon, 30/03/2020 - 8:01am in

On Friday, Mike put up a piece commenting on and reporting a devastating article from the Huffington Post. This revealed that the Tories’ cuts, imposed in the name of austerity and cheap government, had destroyed or discarded the plans previous governments had drawn up against the threat of a global pandemic.

The Cabinet Office had apparently been drawing up a National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, listing the possible threats to the United Kingdom. At the top of the list in each document was pandemic flu. Mike states clearly that the British government knew an event like the present global emergency was coming. However, the strategy to cope with it was written in 2011 and not updated. And it gets worse. The government’s plan for getting the right messages across to the public during a pandemic, the UK Pandemic Influenza Communications Strategy, was written in 2012. It is now very out of date in its assumptions about how and where people get their information. The guide to dealing with the pandemic’s fatalities, which names key contacts, was written four years before that, in 2008. And the government abolished the Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Team, a section within the department of Health, was abolished in 2011. The Tories thus got rid of the very organisation, which would have had the expertise to deal with the pandemic because they were so keen on inflicting cuts.

As a result, according to the HuffPo, “the government has had to either make policy up as it has gone along or is having to beg, borrow and steal from other countries who have been better prepared”.

This is in stark contrast to one of BoJob’s announcements today. Our glorious leader, or one of his minions, declared that Britain was a world leader in tackling the virus. Now this claim was made in the context of the amount of money the government was going to devote to the international effort to develop a vaccine – £500 million. But the statement could be taken to mean that Britain leads the rest of the world in combating the pandemic. Which we don’t. The Chinese are reporting no new cases, or were, and half of the new cases reported in South Korea are of foreigners. It would appear that these countries, which imposed a lockdown much earlier, have been far more successful than we have in tackling it. And other countries have been far less impressed with Johnson. The Greek newspaper Ethnos declared that BoJob was a worse danger than the Coronavirus and reported that he had publicly and essentially asked Britons to accept death. This is in reference to his speech where he declared that Britons were going to lose their loved ones before their time. As he said this, the government was only issuing guidelines but had not imposed a lockdown. The Irish Times stated that Boris was gambling with the health of his citizens. He was. He and his adviser, Dominic Cummings, had decided that they were going to deal with the threat by allowing the disease to spread. The British people would develop herd immunity and the economy would be allowed to continue unharmed by a lockdown. And it was just going to be too bad if a few old people died. The Irish government is relieved that BoJob has at last seen sense. Boris was apparently forced to impose the lockdown because Macron told him he would close the French borders to us if he didn’t. And the mayor of Bergamo, the Italian town hardest hit by the virus, Giorgio Gori, was so frightened by Boris’ complacency and inaction that he flew his two daughters home, because he believed they’d be safer.

Also states that Boris’ singular lack of action on the virus, and the way he dragged his heels before doing anything, bears out criticisms that the Tories have a eugenicist attitude to the poor, the weak and the disabled. They regard them as useless eaters, biologically unfit, who do not deserve to live.

See: https://voxpoliticalonline.com/2020/03/26/the-tories-axed-their-defence-against-coronavirus-years-before-it-arrived-deaths-were-inevitable/

And the Tories long-term attitude towards the poverty and mass death inflicted by austerity really does suggest that attitude. They seem to believe that the state is only wasting resources by supporting them and they should be allowed to die, so that the biologically superior, meaning the rich and especially the corporate elite, should be left free to do as they wish without government interference and the high taxes required by a proper welfare state

Scientists have been worried for decades about the threat of a pandemic. Some of this fear comes from previous viral outbreaks, such as AIDS in the 1980s, and avian flu and swine flu in the 1990s and early part of this century. I guess that the Tories decided that because these diseases did not require the current measures, such precautions weren’t necessary and could be scrapped.

It was a massively short-sighted decision that has undoubtedly cost lives that could otherwise have been saved. 

 

Please, NOW is the time to slow the virus

Published by Anonymous (not verified) on Sat, 21/03/2020 - 2:53pm in

Covid-19 in Braidwood?

[Local experience, but it applies everywhere. The small town of Braidwood is between Canberra and the coast.]

I just returned from Braidwood’s bustling main street, midmorning Saturday 21 March, and it’s clear many Braidwoodians, and Canberrans, haven’t got the message about ‘social distancing’.

There are, plausibly, hundreds of infections in Canberra, and plausibly already some in Braidwood. Let me explain.

Officially there are 6 confirmed Covid-19 infections in Canberra, but there is a delay of around 9 to 15 days between infection and official confirmation. Unrestrained, the number of infections doubles about every three days, and Australia nationally is still close to that rate. It’s that combination of delay and regular doubling that is the problem.

Let’s do the numbers. Symptoms commonly don’t show until 5-7 days after infection, and evidently longer in some cases, so let’s say up to 10 days. Let’s say it takes 1-2 days for someone to consult a doctor. Then it’s 3 days until the results are known. So it’s between 9 and 15 days from infection to confirmation.

Today there are 6 confirmed cases in Canberra, but that reflects the situation 9-15 days ago. After 3 days there would be 12 infections. After 6 days 24 infections. After 9 days, 48 infections. After 12 days 96 infections. After 15 days 192 infections. So let’s say up to about 200 cases in Canberra, right now. 9 days (three doublings) from now there would be eight times as many, 1600 cases, and 18 days from now 12,800 cases in Canberra, with vastly more in the big cities.

So at the moment it seems like nothing is happening and we can carry on as usual. But the virus is spreading, you can count on that, and by the time the problem becomes obvious it is much too late to stop it. That’s how Italy got in trouble.

You can read about the small Italian town of Vo where they tested everyone and found many more infections than they expected, many without symptoms (which means it’s worse than I just estimated). They imposed strict distancing and isolation and today Vo is called the healthiest place in Italy.

Here a very good visual explanation of exponential doubling and pandemics. (The lily pads part is very clear, the buckets metaphor later less clear, but stay with it.)

And there is a deep lesson for us in this pandemic, if we can listen.

So, folks, if you want us to be like South Korea and not Italy, keep your distance, but keep social contact. As Kahlil Gribran says, in The Prophet, “Let there be spaces in your togetherness.”

Pay attention to the messages and new rules. Urge Canberrans not to travel if they don’t have to, and to be mindful and considerate if they do pass through our town. In fact, urge the government to act more quickly and strongly, we are still exposing ourselves to great danger.

Farage and Charlie Kirk Stir Up Racial Tensions with Accusations of Chinese Responsibility for the Coronavirus

As if the disease itself, and the fear and uncertainty caused by the measures by the measures countries all across the world have been forced to adopt to combat the Coronavirus aren’t enough, certain figures on the British and American political right have decided to make the situation worse by throwing around groundless accusations about responsibility for the outbreak. Nigel Farage, owner of the Brexit Party Ltd, and the odious Charlie Kirk, have declared that the Chinese are responsible for it. Zelo Street put up a piece about this latest revolting development, as Benjamin J. Grimm, your blue-eyed, ever-lovin’ Thing used to put it, yesterday.

Almost predictably, it appears to have begun with a comment Trump put out over Twitter. In flat contradiction to everything he had previously said, Trump declared that he had always taken ‘the Chinese virus’ very seriously. One Twitter commenter, who went by the monicker of BrooklynDad_defiant, told Trump that the disease was called the Coronavirus or Covid-19 if he found the first name too difficult. He was endangering Chinese-Americans, and had dismissed the virus as a hoax, claimed it was down to zero and that it had been contained. None of this was true.

Then the Fuhrage decided to put his oar in. He tweeted that corporate America was standing with their President in this emergency, unlike the UK, and that Rishi Sunak’s relief measures were in line with those of France. Which ignore the fact, as Zelo Street reminded us, that the French government isn’t offering loans to help out businesses. And then Farage went to his default position of blaming foreigners, and claimed that the Chinese were responsible. He tweeted “It really is about time we all said it. China caused this nightmare. Period”. And then followed this with “It is time we all challenged the Chinese regime. Enough is enough”. He followed this up by retweeting an approving tweet from Charlie Kirk, the poster boy for the right-wing organisation, Turning Point USA, who said

“In the age of Trump -we’ve learned that the media is hellbent on spreading disinformation and lies. So if we don’t speak the truth, who will? [Nigel Farage] is right and its time we all listen: China caused this pandemic. They should be forced to pay”.

Zelo Street remarked about this display of racism that Farage and Kirk wouldn’t know the truth if it kicked them squarely in the crotch. They are good, however, at screaming ‘liar!’ and ‘Fake news’ at media organisations they dislike in order to rile up their bases. The Sage of Crewe concluded

‘The situation with Covid-19 is serious. It is serious enough that no responsible politician should be going anywhere near leveraging it to whip up the mob.

That Nigel Farage is doing just that tells you all you need to know about where he’s at.’

He’s exactly right, as he began the article with a quotation from the South Korean Foreign Minister, Kang Kyung-wha on the Andrew Marr Show, expressing her concern about a rise in racially motivated attacks on Asians in other countries in response to the crisis. She naturally wanted governments to crack down on it, because it was helping the spirit of collaboration the world needs to combat the crisis.

https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2020/03/farage-uses-crisis-to-whip-up-mob.html

She isn’t alone in these fears. A few days ago I received a message from the anti-racist, anti-religious extremism organisation, Hope Not Hate, describing what they were going to do as a response to the virus. They aren’t just trying to help combat the virus itself, as very many other organisations and charities are also doing, but are trying to expose and tackle the way the crisis is being exploited by Fascist groups. The email said of this part of their work

For example, we’ll be releasing new content on how extremists use the messaging app Telegram to promote terrorism next week. At the same time, we’re adapting our work, conducting research on how the far right are responding to COVID-19 and any way in which they may be weaponsing it. Because of the nature of the virus we are also increasing our research into conspiracy theories. We hope that these areas will allow us to counter how forces of hate are seeking to use this global pandemic.

Now you would have thought that Trump would have been more careful before he blamed the Chinese for the virus. I can remember how George W. Bush during his tenure of the White House 12 years and more ago made an official apology to Japanese-Americans condemning their internment during World War II. It was an apology Japanese-American activists like Star Trek’s George Takei had fought long and hard for. The last thing Trump should be doing is trying to reopen old wounds about his country’s treatment of Asian Americans, and no politico on either side of the Pond should be trying to stir up racial tensions at this time anyway.

The Chinese Communist regime is responsible for any number of atrocities and horrors, from the invasion of Tibet, the genocide of the Uighurs, the suppression of democracy in Hong Kong and the mass deaths of the Cultural Revolution. But it is definitely not responsible for the Coronavirus. The Chinese have made massive efforts to contain and eradicate it, even isolating the province in which it emerged, Wuhan. I’ve also heard nothing to suggest that they have been nothing but entirely collaborative with other nations in the global attempts to combat this disease.

I think Trump called the Coronavirus the ‘Chinese disease’ simply out of stupidity and laziness. He couldn’t remember, or couldn’t be bothered to remember, what it was really called. But Farage and Kirk just seem to have blamed the Chinese out of sheer racism.

This is immensely dangerous, when people are as isolated, vulnerable and fearful as they are now, and Farage and Kirk are to be condemned for their inflammatory, bigoted remarks.

Trotsky on the Failure of Capitalism

I found this quote from Trotsky on how capitalism has now outlived its usefulness as a beneficial economic system in Isaac Deutscher and George Novack, The Age of Permanent Revolution: A Trotsky Anthology (New York: Dell 1964):

Capitalism has outlived itself as a world system. It has ceased to fulfill its essential function, the raising of the level of human power and human wealth. Humanity cannot remain stagnant at the level which it has reached. Only a powerful increase in productive force and a sound, planned, that is, socialist organisation of production and distribution can assure humanity – all humanity – of a decent standard of life and at the same time give it the precious feeling of freedom with respect to its own economy. (p. 363).

I’m not a fan of Trotsky. Despite the protestations to the contrary from the movement he founded, I think he was during his time as one of the leaders of the Russian Revolution and civil war ruthless and authoritarian. The Soviet Union under his leadership may not have been as massively murderous as Stalin’s regime, but it seems to me that it would still have been responsible for mass deaths and imprisonment on a huge scale.

He was also very wrong in his expectation of the collapse of capitalism and the outbreak of revolution in the Developed World. As an orthodox Marxist, he wanted to export the Communist revolution to the rest of Europe, and believed that it would be in the most developed countries of the capitalist West, England, France, and Germany, that revolution would also break out. He also confidently expected throughout his career the imminent collapse of capitalism. This didn’t happen, partly because of the reforms and welfare states established by reformist socialist parties like Labour in Britain and the SPD in Germany, which improved workers’ lives and opportunities, which thus allowed them to stimulate the capitalist economy as consumers and gave them a stake in preserving the system.

It also seems to me that capitalism is still actively creating wealth – the rich are still becoming massively richer – and it is benefiting those countries in the Developing World, which have adopted it, like China and the east Asian ‘tiger’ economies like South Korea.

But in the west neoliberalism, unregulated capitalism, certainly has failed. It hasn’t brought public services, like electricity, railways, and water supply the investment they need, and has been repeatedly shown to be far more inefficient in the provision of healthcare. And it is pushing more and more people into grinding poverty, so denying them the ability to play a role as active citizens about to make wide choices about the jobs they can take, what leisure activities they can choose, and the goods they can buy. At the moment the Tories are able to hide its colossal failure by hiding the mounting evidence and having their hacks in the press pump out favourable propaganda. But if the situation carries on as it is, sooner or later the mass poverty they’ve created will not be so easily hidden or blithely explained away or blamed on others – immigrants, the poor themselves, or the EU. You don’t have to be a Trotskyite to believe the following:

Unfettered capitalism is destroying Britain – get rid of it, and the Tories.