Monday morning geek-out Reflecting on the studies E.J. Dionne referenced (post below), let’s consider where Democrats can narrow their vote margins and perhaps turn losses into wins. The key to Democrats winning in 2024 and beyond could lie in turning out more independent voters in precincts where they lean Democrat. My focus at the moment is how independent voters swing, especially in evenly divided states like North Carolina. (Donald Trump won the state in 2020 by under 1.5 points.) “Unaffiliated” voters (UNAs) here are the largest tranche of state registrants (36 percent in 2022), meaning Democrats must turn out D-leaners to win. Except UNAs statewide voted only 42 percent for the Democrat at the top of the November ticket in the last two general elections. That performance, however, varies wildly by precinct. In mine, four out of five UNAs voted for Joe Biden.* In some of North Carolina’s largest counties, UNAs split as much as 60 percent for Democrats. But take note. North Carolina’s UNAs also turned out in 2022 at roughly 6 percent below overall voter turnout statewide and 8-10 points below Democratic turnout in precincts where my estimates show they lean blue. Why is that, and what if they didn’t? Improving D-leaning UNA turnout could mean the difference between winning and losing in both statewide and some local elections. In red counties in swing states, it may be enough to shave Republican margins to contribute to statewide wins. First, campaigns have to know where to look. The problem…