What horse-race polls don’t show

Created
Fri, 20/10/2023 - 01:30
Updated
Fri, 20/10/2023 - 01:30
Republicans are underwater A lot of polling these days is crap. Presidential horse-race polls, especially. That doesn’t keep them from drawing eyeballs like Bat Boy pics at the checkout counter. Morning Consult has another this morning sure to provoke anxiety. Trump leads Biden in key swing states, per our survey with @business: AZBiden: 43%Trump: 47% GABiden: 43%Trump: 48% MIBiden: 44%Trump: 44% NVBiden: 46%Trump: 43% NCBiden: 43%Trump: 47% PABiden: 45%Trump: 46% WIBiden: 44%Trump: 46%https://t.co/ht2f2Sk2Wq pic.twitter.com/kAceURs9fv — Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) October 19, 2023 But so does Navigator. While presidential polling a full year out from November 2024 suggests another close election, Navigator reports the Republican brand is suffering: From the newsletter: Seven in ten Americans disapprove of the way Republicans in Congress are handling their jobs, as favorability for prominent Republicans is underwater. For the first time, Republicans hold a net negative view of Republicans in Congress (net -4; 45 percent approve – 49 percent disapprove; a net negative 23-point shift since early September). Americans overall also disapprove of Republicans in Congress by a 43-point margin (26 percent approve – 69 percent disapprove), including over four in five Democrats (86 percent disapprove) and nearly three in four independents (72 percent disapprove). Disapproval is equally high among moderate Americans (net -47; 22 percent approve – 69 percent disapprove) and among Republicans who describe themselves as not very conservative, Republicans in Congress have double-digit net negative ratings (net -17; 38 percent approve – 55 percent disapprove). Disapproval of Republicans today does not equal depressed turnout for…