G. Elliott Morris of 538 (the man who took Nate Silver’s place) has thoughts on the polls. I think you will find it reassuring: Where does the 2024 election stand one year out? We modeled six scenarios for the presidential race. American voters cast 158 million ballots in the 2020 presidential election. Yet the winner was ultimately decided by about 43,000 voters across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — the states that carried President Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral College votes he needed to win the presidency. The 2016 election, also closely contested, was similarly settled by about 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And if the 2024 election were held tomorrow, it would likely be very close too. At least, that’s what the polls say. According to an average of national 2024 general election polls I’ve run using 538’s current polling average methodology, Biden and former President Donald Trump are currently neck-and-neck among likely voters, with Trump at 42.9 percent and Biden at 42.4 percent. Support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, both of whom have announced runs as independents, is hovering around 11 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Although there’s a long way to go before next November, these numbers suggest that 2024 at least starts out as a close election. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024 without naming specific candidates. Since this is…