Campaign business as usual won’t cut it in 2024 If you live in a blue county, you probably think independents lean your way. And maybe they do. Inside city limits. But outside? Nationwide, independent voters lean red, and did in November 2022 even if the split looked closer in December 2023. Plus, the segment of the electorate that identifies as independent is growing steadily (below). There are more of them than there are Democrats or Republicans. Over half of voters roughly 45 and younger identify as independents. Not all states register by party (including some key swing states), so there this is harder to parse out. But here are two 2024 swing states that do. In North Carolina (16 electoral votes), for example, the current registration breakdown is: Independents: 36% Democrats: 33% Republicans: 30% In Arizona (11 electoral votes), the registration breakdown is: Independents: 35% Republicans: 34%Democrats: 30% Good News, Bad News Democrats cannot win without earning the votes of a sufficient number of independents and that could be a challenge, especially for candidates running statewide. The good news is that even if independents have a significantly unfavorable view of both major parties, voters 49 and younger have a significantly more favorable view of Democrats than Republicans (below). The bad news is that those younger independents who most lean Democrat actually vote far less than those who bleed red. See Nonvoters under “AGE” below. In 2022, nearly 2/3 of nonvoters were 49 and younger, per Pew. See Millennials and Gen…