Surviving The Pollercoaster

Created
Tue, 06/02/2024 - 02:30
Updated
Tue, 06/02/2024 - 02:30
Choose not to ride Dan Pfeiffer of Crooked Media attempts to coax readers of presidential polls off the ledge. His team has dubbed the stomach-churn the Pollercoaster. Biden is up. Biden is down. Biden is tied. Trump is ahead by three, Biden is by six. Take a breath, Pfeiffer advises: The 2024 election will be unprecedented, Pfeiffer explains, as was the COVID-19 election of 2020. “For the first time in the modern era, a former president is running to reclaim his job. There is a historic level of dissatisfaction with both candidates,” Pfeiffer explains. “A record number of voters are expressing interest in voting for a third-party candidate. Finally, one of the candidates is facing the prospect of being convicted of a crime and sentenced to prison before the election.” Poll that one, pilgrim, and I’ll get you another! Regarding those third-party efforts, Pfeiffer adds: First, every pollster is treating the No Labels candidacy differently. Some use possible candidates like West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin or former Republican Governor Larry Hogan. Others describe No Labels as a bipartisan organization. Secondly, we have no idea where these candidates will be on the ballot. Ballot position makes a difference in the voting booth, and where the “thirds” land could be different in every state. Finally, Pfeiffer gets to the factor that keeps me up at night: independents and young voters. When he sees two wildly divergent polls, Pfeiffer looks at the crosstabs for how those groups responded to poll questions: In the Quinnipiac…