Back in 2022 almost everyone expected the midterms to go Republican. They didn’t.
The Supremes won it for Democrats, because women were furious about the over-turning of Roe v.s. Wade.
Harris is a terrible candidate, but the Supremes seem likely to win it for her, too.
Men tend to vote Republican, women tend to vote Democratic. Women are far more likely to vote than men, and if they remains true on election day, Trump is toast.
What Republicans don’t get is that abortion is a health issue as well as a choice issue. There is a constant drumbeat of stories of women dying because doctors and hospitals were unwilling or scared to do an abortion when medically necessary. I recently saw a story of a late term 18 year old. She went to a hospital with Sepsis, they sent her home. She went to another one, they dragged their feet and insisted on two scans, and by the time they were willing to do what was needed, she was dead.
And the problems, electorally, is that while there is a hard minority of men who really care about abortion, more women care, and are pro-choice and pro-women’s lives. After all, but for the Grace of God, there they go, or their friends or children.
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Added to the numbers above we have the Selzer poll which found Ohio, of all places, going Harris by 3 points. Selzer has historically been very reliable, but it’s the shock of it being Ohio, a state which has been solidly red for years.
If the gender gap or the Ohio poll are accurate (Selzer), Harris isn’t just going to win, she’s going to blow Trump out of the water.
The problems I see with a Harris victory in this manner are:
- The democrats won’t do anything major about abortion, because they’ll figure if they keep it as a problem it’ll continue to win them elections;
- Harris winning will be seen as a sign that Biden’s policies are good, and should continue.
All this said, I suck at electoral prediction, so we’ll see. But this does seem to be the scenario.