Too close to the election

Created
Wed, 25/01/2023 - 01:00
Updated
Wed, 25/01/2023 - 01:00
Redistricting, partisan balance and voter turnout U.S. House district lines will shift again in as many as a dozen states before the next general election. The fight, writes Ron Brownstein, resembles teams “changing the dimensions of the playing field even after the game is underway.” In the last two elections, both major parties managed thin five-seat majorities (CNN): While it’s not likely that all of these states will ultimately draw new lines, a combination of state and federal lawsuits and shifts in the balance of power in state legislatures and courts virtually ensure that an unusually large number of districts may look different in 2024 than they did in 2022, with huge implications for control of the House. “It’s just trench warfare back and forth,” says Kelly Burton, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, the leading Democratic group involved in congressional redistricting. The possibility that so many states could still reconfigure their House districts reflects the uncertainty looming over the political system as the Supreme Court considers momentous cases that will shape the future of voting rights challenges to congressional maps and the authority of state supreme courts to police partisan gerrymandering. “We are kind of all in a holding pattern until we determine what the Supreme Court does in those two cases,” said Nick Seabrook, a University of North Florida political scientist and author of two books on the history of gerrymandering. Equally important, though, may be the growing determination of each party to scratch out every potential…