Mortgages

Sam Christie and Aniruddha Rajan Sudden contractions in credit supply can trigger and amplify recessions – a reality made painfully clear by the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). However, quantifying these real economic effects is challenging. In this post, we demonstrate a novel way to do so using Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV), focusing on the … Continue reading GIV us some credit: estimating the macroeconomic effects of credit supply shocks →

James Waddell and Meghna Shrestha An increasing number of households in the UK are opting for longer-term mortgages, with the share of borrowers taking out new mortgages with terms 30 years or longer tripling since 2005. But who are these households, why have they done so, and what could this imply for financial stability? This … Continue reading 30+ year mortgages – are these the new norm? What does this mean for financial stability? →

Daniel Norris, Elio Cucullo and Vasilis Jacovides When borrowers enter a fixed-rate mortgage, lenders test whether they could continue to afford their mortgage if interest rates were to increase by the time it comes to re-fix. This ‘stressing’ is designed to create additional resilience for borrowers and the financial system. Over the last two years, … Continue reading Mortgage affordability for borrowers who re-fixed in 2023 →

Fergus Cumming and Danny Walker Bank Rate has risen by more than 5 percentage points in the UK over the past couple of years. This has led to much higher mortgage rates for many people. In this post we analyse another potential source of pressure on mortgagors: the potential for falls in house prices to … Continue reading Why lower house prices could lead to higher mortgage rates →