Paul Krugman thinks we dodged that bullet but nobody’s noticed Krugman ‘s newsletter today lays out the data: Until quite recently there was a near consensus among forecasters that the U.S. economy was headed for a recession. In fact, it’s been exactly one year since Bloomberg declared that, according to its models, the probability of a recession by October 2023 — that is, now — was 100 percent. Oops. OK, it’s possible — barely — that a recession has begun but isn’t in the data yet. Economists of a certain age remember that for much of 2008 some commentators denied that there was a recession underway, but the official business cycle chronology now says that the worst slump since the 1930s began in December 2007. That said, warning indicators like the Sahm rule, which looks at the unemployment rate compared with its previous low, were flashing red by the summer of 2008, in a way they aren’t now: And forecasters, most of whom were very gloomy at the beginning of this year, have been backing off, with slightly fewer than half in a recent survey still predicting recession.
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Will Mike Pence or Tim Scott drop out first? Scott’s Super-Pac pulls ads: The super PAC supporting Tim Scott’s presidential bid is canceling most of its remaining TV spending, reversing course after reserving $40 million in ads for him ahead of the Iowa caucuses. The retreat from TV is the latest sign of how dire the primary has become for a candidate who once anticipated outside help from big donors — but who is now polling in low single digits and hasn’t yet qualified for the third debate. Pence reports a dismal fund-raising haul: Former Vice President Mike Pence is reportedly facing an “existential cash squeeze” that could bring an end to his 2024 run for the White House. Pence’s campaign told NBC News that filings due at the Federal Election Commission by the end of Sunday will reflect some $620,000 in debt, and that Pence has resorted to putting $150,000 in personal funds to the low-polling effort.
They think it’s perfectly normal This is the way wingnuts used to sound back in the dark ages when I was growing up. I guess it’s what they mean by “making American great again.” In August, reporter Yanqi Xu heard her name called from a stage in Philadelphia for a national award recognizing Our Dirty Water, her series examining Nebraska’s high nitrate levels and their potential connection to childhood cancer. Weeks later, she published a piece looking at the environmental impact of Pillen Family Farms, Gov. Jim Pillen’s company. She found that 16 Pillen hog farms have recorded nitrate levels higher than 50 parts per million – five times higher than is considered safe to drink. One farm recorded a reading of 445 parts per million. Yanqi combed through hundreds of government records to find that a dozen Pillen operations violated state regulations. Employees at one farm constructed a PVC pipe to drain pig waste into a freshwater channel. Four days after we published that story, Governor Jim Pillen called into KFAB radio from a trade mission in Japan.
Who ya gonna call? Last month, as congressional Republicans devolved into endless chaos and the political world finally accepted that Donald Trump would almost certainly be the GOP presidential nominee in 2024, Joe Biden’s campaign decided it would highlight the fact that the president and the Democrats continue to do their jobs professionally and behave like leaders. They called this the “split-screen” strategy, and according to press reports they sent out talking points and daily memos to illustrate the contrast between the steady leadership of the Biden administration and the constant turmoil on the Republican side . For instance, while the president was addressing the U.N. in September and walking the picket line with striking auto workers, Republicans in the House were squabbling over a defense spending bill they couldn’t pass and preparing to oust their own speaker of the House because a handful of members had a personal grudge against him. Donald Trump was whining about all the legal problems he’s faces and ranting about Republican officials he deems to be disloyal. The contrasts have only gotten starker since then.
When asked who you plan to vote for you really don’t need to say anything else: Also, the incumbent president isn’t the world’s greatest sore loser who is currently under 91 felony indictments. There’s that too.
It’s the only way to work your way through the moral morass October 16th, 2023Statement on Behalf of Israel-based Progressives and Peace ActivistsRegarding Debates over Recent Events in Our Region: We, Israel-based academics, thought leaders and progressive activists committed to peace, equality, justice, and human rights, are deeply pained and shocked by the recent events in our region. We are also deeply concerned by the inadequate response from certain American and European progressives regarding the targeting of Israeli civilians by Hamas, a response which reflects a disturbing trend in the global left’s political culture. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched an unprecedented attack that included mass murder of innocent civilians in their homes, indiscriminate violence towards women, the elderly, and children, and mass kidnappings of Israeli citizens. Entire families were wiped out in this carnage, whole communities were reduced to ashes, bodies were maimed, infants were massacred. It is impossible to overstate the damage caused by these events, both on a personal and a collective level.
Will Marge Greene and her allies go along? Looks like Jim Jordan is telling people what they want to hear. Will the caucus allow that? Four House Republicans walked away from conversations with House GOP speaker nominee Jim Jordan under the impression he’ll allow a floor vote on linking Ukraine funding with Israel funding if he wins the gavel, Axios has learned. Many hardline House Republicans are pushing for the U.S. to stop providing funding to Ukraine, but allowing a House floor vote could allow funding to pass thanks to significant help from Democrats. A Jordan spokesperson denied that the speaker nominee made promises, telling Axios that Jordan’s conversations were about working to find the right approach, rather than specific promises. “However you feel about Israel and Ukraine, I think a responsible and reasonable government ought to address those questions separately,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said last week. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) recently posted on X: “We need a Speaker who is able to put their full efforts into defeating the communist democrats and save America.
The Judge in Trump’s January 6th case issued a narrow gag order today. A federal judge has barred Donald Trump from attacking witnesses, prosecutors and court staff involved in his Washington, D.C., criminal case, imposing a gag order that sharply escalates the tension between Trump’s 2024 bid for the presidency and the realities of his status as a criminal defendant. “First Amendment protections yield to the administration of justice and to the protection of witnesses,” Judge Tanya Chutkan said Monday as she issued the gag order. “His presidential candidacy does not give him carte blanche to vilify … public servants who are simply doing their job.” She didn’t mention herself specifically so I guess Trump does feel that he has carte blanche to vilify her: Trump attacks Chutkan: Her whole life is not liking me pic.twitter.com/7pNGboiRtS — Acyn (@Acyn) October 16, 2023 Here he is also being very presidential today. And they loved him.
I share Blanchard’s vision that “The pursuit of a widely accepted analytical macroeconomic core, in which to locate discussions and extensions, may be a pipe dream, but it is a dream surely worth pursuing”. But he—and Neoclassical economics in general—err with the false belief that “Starting from explicit microfoundations is clearly essential; where else to … Continue reading "The Macrofoundations of Macroeconomics"
It had so much promise … We thought that social media was going to be a great boon to civilization, opening up communication across the planet for the benefit of humans everywhere. Instead it’a become a dystopian nightmare. Look what’s happening in Israel and Gaza: A WhatsApp voice memo purporting to have insider information ricocheted across hundreds of group chats in Israel early on Monday. The Israeli army was planning for another “battle like we’ve never experienced before,” the anonymous woman said in Hebrew, warning that people should prepare to lose access to food, water and internet service for a week. Across the country, Israelis raced to the banks and to the grocery stores, anticipating another attack. But the message, the army clarified hours later on X, turned out to be a falsehood. One week into the war between Israel and Gaza, social media is inducing a fog of war surpassing previous clashes in the region — one that’s shaping how panicked citizens and a global public view the conflict. Social media has long played a critical role in battles in the area.