uncertainty

Marco Garofalo, Simon Lloyd and Edward Manuel The economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war have brought the importance of sharp changes in commodity prices, such as oil, to centre stage. While many have focused on understanding the impact of these developments on the central projection for the macroeconomic outlook, this post investigates the balance of … Continue reading Fuelling the tail: inflation- and GDP-at-Risk with oil-supply shocks →

Nikoleta Anesti, Marco Garofalo, Simon Lloyd, Edward Manuel and Julian Reynolds Understanding and quantifying risks to the economic outlook is essential for effective monetary policymaking. In this post, we describe an ‘Inflation-at-Risk’ model, which helps us assess the uncertainty and balance of risks around the outlook for UK inflation, and understand how this uncertainty relates … Continue reading Unknown measures: assessing uncertainty around UK inflation using a new Inflation-at-Risk model →