It’s not morning in America just yet

Created
Wed, 23/08/2023 - 07:00
Updated
Wed, 23/08/2023 - 07:00
This is a very useful piece about the timing of good economic news from Bill Scher: Despite near-record low unemployment, respectable Gross Domestic Product growth, wages outpacing inflation, and disposable personal income rising, Joe Biden’s job approval numbers have been stuck in the low 40s. Even more perplexing, approval for his handling of the economy is usually a tick worse than his overall job approval. In turn, several commentators are openly wondering: Why hasn’t Biden gotten credit for the improving economy? But the better question is: How long does it take for any president to get credit for an improving economy? We don’t have a pat answer because every president’s economic circumstances differ. But we have evidence to suggest that credit does not come quickly. Ronald Reagan experienced a sharp recession early in his first term, from July 1981 to November 1982, with the unemployment rate peaking at 10.8 percent a month after the recession officially ended. For all of 1982, the Gipper’s job approval in Gallup polling was in the 40s, and in January 1983, it briefly sunk to the 30s. Throughout 1983, however, the GDP grew like gangbusters, with annualized rates of over 8 percent in the latter three quarters. While unemployment dropped steadily almost every month, it only reached 8.3 percent by year’s end. Reagan’s approval remained mainly in the low 40s until November 1983, after the public applauded a successful military operation in Grenada. From then on, Reagan enjoyed job approval above 50 percent until the Iran-Contra scandal midway through his second term. George H. W. Bush was hit with a recession…