About That Bidenomics Thing

Created
Wed, 27/12/2023 - 07:00
Updated
Wed, 27/12/2023 - 07:00
Maybe it’s going to work out after all? There’s a lot of economic news this holiday week. The media is slowly but surely beginning the turn although they give Biden no credit even as Trump is out there saying we’re in a recession and acting as if he presided over Camelot or something. But really, the news is good. Here’s one little data point from the professionals who have no reason at all to blow smoke. (After all, they can make money either way…) Here’s the Goldman Sachs projection for 2024: Unemployment to stay low, 3.6%. Wage growth of 3.5% with inflation at 2%, meaning real wage growth of 1.5%. Overall growth of 2%. FRB starts cutting interest rates throughout 2024. — Our most out-of-consensus call for 2024 is our growth forecast. Our 2% forecast for 2024 Q4/Q4 GDP growth is well above consensus of 0.9% and the FOMC’s 1.4% forecast. This reflects our view that the growth impulses from changes in financial conditions and changes in fiscal policy should be modest and roughly neutral on net next year. It also reflects our forecast that consumer spending will easily beat expectations—we expect 2% growth vs. consensus of 1%—because real income should grow about 3% and household net worth is close to an all-time high. — Consistent with our growth view, we expect the labor market to remain strong. The healthy starting point of still-high job openings and a low layoff rate coupled with fading recession fears should support steady job…