The condition for loss by the Resistance is clear: Palestinians are ethnically cleansed further, ideally (from the Israeli point of view,) out of Palestine entirely.
How does the resistance win? It’s unlikely to be marching thru Tel Aviv, although I don’t think that’s necessarily impossible given how small Israel is and how incompetent its military at everything but aerial bombardment.
Collapse of the Settler Project: Israel currently has about a quarter million internal refugees. The settlements near the Lebanese border have been evacuated. People say Hezbollah is doing nothing or little, but in fact they’ve cause the Israelis serious problems. Without settlers, Israel cannot complete the ethnic cleansing of Palestine, plus a lot of the economy is based on settler expansion.
Tourism Collapse: Israel relies a lot on tourism. Strangely war is bad for tourism, and they’ve lost 80% of their tourists.. If this war goes on for another year or more (the way Sharon is talking), well…
Too Many Dual Citizens Leaving: About 10% of the Israeli population has dual citizenship, but these are often the most economically important citizens, especially engineers and scientists. If they don’t feel safe, they don’t have to stay.
Military Mutinies: Israel’s military is reliant on calling up civilians when they expect mass combat. Those civilians don’t want to stay in the military for long periods, and their families don’t actually want them shot up.
Budgetary and Economic Problems. If Israel can’t pay its bills, well its got problems.
Historically states collapse when the violent enforcers refuse to work or are defeated.
Basically, the Israeli project requires people to trust the Israeli government and the IDF to keep Israel safe. If people don’t feel safe, well, those who can leave, the settler project collapses and companies outside Israel are far less willing to set up business in Israel or to even contract with Israeli businesses.
Israel seems to be skating towards war with Hezbollah, with both sides angling to be able to say the other side started it.
But Israel can’t “win” a war with Hezbollah. It’s impossible. In the last war when Hezbollah was much weaker, Israel was never able to stop the missiles, and Hezbollah has far more and better missiles now and more troops, plus a huge drone fleet. The missiles have the range to hit anywhere in Israel. Tel Aviv will get hit. Yes, Israel can flatten large chunks of Lebanon, but it can’t stop Hezbollah from doing the same to Israel.
Fundamentally, Israel has lost much of its deterrence. Yes, it can still stop a full invasion, but it can’t stop constant missile attacks.
Pretty hard to run a prosperous country people who have other options want to live in if you’re constantly being hit by missiles.
The only way to get out of this would be to make genuine peace: but genuine peace can only be made by giving up the settler project and the idea of Israel as a Jewish supremacist state, and that’s a loss condition to both Israel’s leadership and most of their population.