The archaic, undemocratic electoral college stakes are very high Josh Marshall notes that 538 has finally put up their polling average and then takes a look at the state of the electoral college strategy: The headline here is Trump and Biden tied at the national level and Trump holding what they call a “tenuous” lead in the swing states. But the breakdown of their averages shows something more specific. The two candidates also basically tied in the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The precise averages are actually Trump +1.1 (Michigan), Biden +.1 (Wisconsin) and Trump +0.9 (Pennsylvania). But those datasets are still weighted toward GOP-leaning polls at the moment. In any case, those are basically ties and I’m fairly confident Biden wins those. It’s the Southern-tier states of Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona which each have Trump leads of around 5 points, give or take. Here’s the key. If Biden holds the Blue Wall states and wins that single electoral vote in Nebraska he gets to 270 votes. Literally the absolute minimum to win. That’s if he loses Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. So 270 to 268. If this seems odd to you it’s because those southern states have gained a few electoral votes at the expense of blue states in the northeast. You can see why Republicans really, really want to switch the rules for electoral votes in Nebraska. Now if Biden wins Nevada or Arizona suddenly he’s also 40 electoral points up. On the other…