Faint Praise

Created
Mon, 19/08/2024 - 05:00
Updated
Mon, 19/08/2024 - 05:00
The top is the headline from the new Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll which shows that Harris has taken the lead nationally by 4 points. As the NY Times Pitchbot satire account points out the characterization of her holding a “slight” lead is more than a little bit pinched. The newspapers are mad that she isn’t pounding at their doors begging to be interviewed 24/7 (the John McCain good old boys bus tours still remain their fondest dream.) So the coverage is hedged, to say the least. The national polls are interesting, of course, if we want to know how the country at large is perceiving the race. But as we know, the real question is where we stand in the antiquated electoral college. Dan Pfeiffer’s newsletter today took a deep dive into the polls. He discussed “the Blue Wall” strategy which until Harris took over was considered the only path Biden had to win. , Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and the single district in Nebraska would get him to 270 and at the time he dropped out no other swing states appeared to be in play. He says Harris’s best bet is to win those states as well but now there are some other paths available as well: Ultimately, a campaign wants many paths to 270. In 2000, Al Gore needed Florida to win the White House and a small ballot snafu in Palm Beach County cost him the election. In other words, you want your electoral eggs in as many…