Simon Rosenberg on the “Trump underperforming the polls” thing: [Y]ou often hear commentators talk about Trump overperforming public polling in 2016 and 2020 which means we need to be up by 3-4-5 points or more in the polls to win. That may have been true in 2016 and 2020, but it is core to our understanding here that everything in American politics changed with Dobbs, it was a before and after moment, and that: Republicans have underperforming public polls in races of all kinds all across the country since Dobbs. We’ve been overperforming public polls not them. Trump underperformed – not overperformed – public polls in his primary elections, sometimes by a big number The fascists underperformed public polls in the recent European and French elections, and the right got blown out in the UK. Every election is unique, not like any other. I think comparisons to 2016 and 2020 are unhelpful, for Trump 2024 is now an insurrectionist, a rapist, fraudster, traitor, felon, and the man who stripped the rights and freedoms away from the women of America. He is far more degraded, diminished and extreme. Just as I wrote in what became a very prescient 2021 essay, 3 Reasons Why 2022 Will Not Be 2010, I believe, deeply, that 2024 will not be 2020 or 2016. I think it is far more likely that Trump underperforms than overperforms public polling, and that we end up kicking his ass this November. The common rebuttal is that Trump hasn’t been on the…