Was There A Bump?

Created
Tue, 17/09/2024 - 06:30
Updated
Tue, 17/09/2024 - 06:30
Depends on who’s asking Ok, ok, I can’t resist. Here’s a little polling chum for a Monday afternoon. Don’t take any of it too seriously because the polls are close and polling is in crisis so we really have no earthly idea who’s ahead and who’s behind. But there are trends… From Dan Pfeiffer’s post this morning on the post-debate polls: The national polling averages remain largely unchanged. On the day of the debate, the FiveThirtyEight polling average had Harris leading Trump by 2.5%. Today, that lead is 2.8%. However, a steady stream of positive polls for Harris came out since the debate. Simon Rosenberg compiled this list in a recent issue of his Hopium Chronicles newsletter: Harris 50-45 (+5) Morning ConsultHarris 47-42 (+5) Ipsos/ReutersHarris 51-47 (+4) RMGHarris 50-46 (+4) Data For ProgressHarris 49-45 (+4) YouGov/Yahoo (LVs)Harris 49-45 (+4) YouGov/Times (LVs)Harris 47-43 (+4) TIPP InsightsHarris 50-47 (+3) Leger/NYPostHarris 48-45 (+3) SoCalHarris 44-42 (+2) Redfield & Wilton And then, on Sunday morning, an ABC News/Ipsos poll showed Harris up by six points over Trump. The poll that reinvigorated political junkies was from Iowa — a non-battleground state. The Des Moines Register poll shows Trump up by only four points. This poll was notable for a few reasons. One, it was conducted by Ann Selzer whose Iowa polls are seen as the gold standard. Two, a previous poll from June had Trump beating Biden by 18 points. Finally, states with similar demographics are correlated. If Biden was losing Iowa by 18 points, it was unlikely he was winning Wisconsin. If Harris is…