A reader friend by the name of Sean Kelly, a scientist, seeing me flail about trying to deal with polling, offered this explanation and agreed to let me share it with you in case you are feeling the same way. It cleared a few things up for me: So. Political polling. It is basically experts making data informed guesses, and the reported margins of error are pretty much meaningless in context. Experts making informed guesses are a useful thing, and the best realistic option, but poll results are not scientifically rigorous things. Let me explain some of that context. The reality of political polling usually involves people that answer their phone when the call is from an unknown number. That skews the sample to older people, as many people avoid scammers and random sales people by not answering calls by unknown numbers. Older people grew up in a society where avoiding callers was impolite, so are more likely to pick up – not certain, but more likely. Alternatively, a small army of people can buttonhole people on the street, but that skews the poll to shoppers or business people that are out on the street. Other polls might try a combination of sampling techniques in a quest to be more representative, but they all have their strengths and weaknesses. This problem gets wrapped under the heading ‘representative sample’. The hard math pollsters imply they use by using statistics form and jargon gets reduced to guesswork, with the fudges each pollster…