Wait For The Data

Created
Wed, 13/11/2024 - 10:00
Updated
Wed, 13/11/2024 - 10:00
I don’t think people realize that exit polls are just polls. They’re good, as polls go, because they ask a lot of people what they think and what they voted for on the day of the election. But it takes several months for the numbers crunchers to adjust and analyse the data alongside the actual results and it is often substantially different than what we thought on the morning after the election. Anyway, Ryan Cooper at the American Prospect suggests that we put our hair shirts in the closet for the time being and deal with the fact that half of the American public has no idea what they’re in for: Now that Donald Trump has won, again, a furious debate on the left side of the political spectrum has erupted, as Democratic Party factions jostle for position by casting blame on everyone but themselves. For my part, while I can’t help but have some suspicions, it will be six months before we have detailed data on where demographics actually landed, and at time of writing California is not even done counting. Any serious conclusions are premature at this point. A more interesting conundrum, however, is the maddening fact that Trump paid little or no electoral penalty for his numerous hideously unpopular positions. A developing body of evidence suggests that a critical mass of voters simply did not hear about these positions, or did not believe them if they did. (The most bleak thread in this story are interviews with unauthorized immigrants who say…