Quick Takes: Tariffs, the Zelensky BlowUp & More

Created
Tue, 04/03/2025 - 08:35
Updated
Tue, 04/03/2025 - 08:35
Quick Takes: Tariffs, the Zelensky BlowUp & More

Sometimes I want to comment on topics without doing a full piece.

According to Trump tariffs on Canada and Mexico, at 25% except on energy, which will be 10%, start tomorrow. Along with the 20% tariff on China, the cost to the US is likely to about 1% of GDP. Canada could lose as much as six percent.

Expect retaliation from both countries. Some of it will be sub-Federal, the Ontario Prime Minister has said he’ll raise prices for electricity sent to New York state, for example. Sorry folks, I know most of you didn’t vote for Trump, but…

As I’ve written before I think tariffs are good for Canada. We’ll take a substantial hit, but moving to manufacturing in Canada, buying Canadian and diversifying our export partners are all things we should have done years ago. Hopefully we’ll cancel NAFTA/USMCA: there’s no point in having treaties with the US, since they never obey them.

Israel’s stopped aid to Gaza again. Israel never met its obligations, lied that Hamas has refused to continue the truce and is preparing for war again. Not entirely a surprise but still a disappointment. Meanwhile they’ve occupied a big chunk of Israel. At least Hamas hasn’t embarrassed themselves the way Hezbollah has: they still have some hostages, and they’ve called Israel on their violations, even if the Western press lies about the facts repeatedly.

Trump, Vance and Zelensky’s Press conference blew up. Commenters are apportioning blame in various ways, I don’t much care. The bottom line is that American caused the war because everything came from the Maidan coup which was run by America. Absent that, the sequence of events never happens. Victoria Nuland ran Ukraine as a personal fiefdom for almost a decade. The US and UK convinced Ukraine to keep fighting when they had a generous peace offer on the table, and the result is probably a million and a half dead and Ukraine effectively shattered. To then turn around and act as if Ukraine owes America, rather than the other way around is to act in complete defiance of the actual history and without the least shred of honor.

For what it’s worth, not that Zelensky will do it, but the best course in my mind would be to ask China to mediate because China is the only country in the world which has actual, significant leverage over Russia and Xi has repeatedly said he’d be willing to send peacekeepers. And if China makes any deals with Ukraine, they’ll at least get actual rebuilding, roads, ports, hospitals and so on out of it.

In the larger picture, the US is in irreversible decline. Cut out of the noise and the smaller events. The US can’t afford NATO any more. Just like the collapse of the Warsaw Pact was a sign of Russia’s decline, so is the ending of NATO. US carrier groups no longer have a full set of supporting ships: America can’t make them run any more. America’s flagship aircraft builder can’t make reliable planes any more. Trump is starting a crypto reserve. Social benefits are being slashed, yet again, in massive ways. America is behind in 80% of techs. It couldn’t build enough weapons and ammunition to fully support Ukraine and in a real war against China or Russia would run out of munitions in about two weeks, then get the shit kicked out of it. It’s also destroying the WTO and other agreements created by it: it’s dismantling its Empire because, simply, it can’t afford it any more.

America’s done. It’s still dangerous, but the decline is terminal. Everyone else needs to negotiate this decline and seek new alliances and trade partners, and take advantage of the end of enforced neoliberalism and “free” trade to re-industrialize and make their countries better able to grow the food they need and manufacture the goods they need.

Why are there no beggars in China? There used to be, now visitors report there aren’t. I can’t speak to the accuracy of the below, but if correct it seems the government decided to send them to their native towns and gave the towns enough money to give them jobs and homes.

In more “Trump officials are malevolent children” news:

Ordinary Americans visiting Canada are advised to pretend not be American or to constantly say “I didn’t vote for him.” Pull this sort of stunt in the wrong place, on the other hand, and you’ll be lucky not to wind up in the hospital. The idea that most Canadians aren’t proud of Canada is an American/Trumpian delusion.

Finally, I remind you that amidst all the noise there are only two big issues: the end of the American era and rise of China is one, and evenironmental issues (which is about more than just climate) is the other.

Au revoir from Canada.

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