Before we get into the most recent developments of the war between Russia and the Ukraine, I want to focus a little bit about how Russia is outstripping the West technology. We all know necessity is the mother of all invention. And war is the mother of all necessity. The Russians haven’t missed a beat innovating. One of the most terrifying weapon systems is Russia’s thermobaric weapons. They now have at least three operating platforms to deliver these utterly destructive weapons. Thermobaric weapons are not illegal under the rules of war. They are accepted as valid and while the Ukrainians might complain, no one is listening.
If you recall the MOAB–so called Mother of all Bombs, was a thermobaric weapons. Thermobaric weapons explode and aerosolize fuel in the air before they ignite. They are designed to destroy bunkers, and killl everyone in them. The United States has not developed them futher, resting on their laurels as they have no need to do so, so they think.
Not so Russia. Here is a primer on thermobaric weapons. Here is a primer in a more Russo-Ukraine conflict context. So far the US has only developed a thermobaric grenade, the MOAB, the Hellfire missile and for a Marine rocket launcher. That is the limits of US innovation.
The Russians on the other hand have taken things a lot further. First, the MOAB desrtuctive power is 9.8 tonnes. The Russian version, dubbed the FOAB (father), is the equivalent of 44.4 tonnes. But the Russian version of the bomb is overkill and the Russians know it, using it only sparingly. Instead they developed a launch system of 24 thermobaric rockts placed on top of a T-72 tank chassis with a maximum range of about 6 kilometers, called the TOS-1A. Many of the TOS-1A were destroyed early in the war. The Russians, as trench, fortified and urban warfare became more prevalent, reboubled their efforts. The TOS-1A could be spotted and destroyed by some of the more advanced weapons systems the West gave the Ukrainians.
So, the Russians upgraded the TOS-1A with the TOS-2. The TOS-2 is based on a wheeled vehicle for better shoot and scoot capability to avoid being blown up by counter battery attacks. The rockets are more lethal–having flecks of magnesium and aluminum to make them hotters (and test are ongoing with nanofuels) and have a range of almost 15 kilometers. It is also equipped with modern sights and target navigation systems, I beleive based on Russia’s GLONASS, their version of GPS satellite targeting. TOS-2 vehicles can self reload, and come equipped with electronic warfare jamming systems. Here is the first of two videos, made within the last two months showing the devastation the TOS-2 system, which recently underwent an upgrade, can do to Ukrainian lines. Here is the second. Warning to the viewer: these are real scenes of war. Viewer discretion advised.
Moreover, even the much vaunted Iskander ballistic missile can be mounted with a 700 kg thermobaric warhead. The list of Russian thermobaric weapons is simply to long to list. The United States has no answer to weapons like this. The Russians are now using these weapons all across the front lines to destroy bunkers, trenches and near the front hardened command centers. The results, per the CIA (arguably not the most trustworthy source, but it’s what I got) describe horrifying results:
the effect of an [thermobaric] explosion within confined spaces is immense. Those near the ignition point are [incenerated]. Those at the fringe are likely to suffer many internal, invisible injuries, including burst eardrums and crushed inner ear organs, severe concussions, ruptured lungs and internal organs, and possibly blindness.
Many Ukrainian soldiers that experience such explosions and survive surrender immediately, the psychological effect is that crippling. The pressure on the front and the Ukrainian infantryman gets greater and greater every day.
Two more quick links. This first one is worth everyone’s time because it actually destroys a BBC article based on Russia’s neglect of Mariopol, a town it took early in the war and supposedly has left to rot, per the BBC. The video proves the exact opposite. Watch it here.
Lastly, a pretty respectful and wide ranging conversation between an American interviewer and the Russian ambassador to the UN. Longish but all in English and worth watching. It’s a rare example of no-bullshit in my opinion.
More as it develops.