BVAR

Natalie Burr In economic theory, expectations of future inflation are an important determinant of inflation, making them a key variable of interest for monetary policy makers. But is there empirical evidence to suggest monetary policy can help determine inflation expectations? I answer this question in a recent paper by applying a Bayesian proxy vector autoregression … Continue reading Shaping inflation expectations: the effects of monetary policy →

Misa Tanaka Today the Bank published the 2025–28 ‘Bank of England Agenda for Research’ setting out the key areas for new research over the coming years and a set of priority topics for 2025. Misa Tanaka works in the Bank’s Research Hub and is the Bank’s Head of Research. If you want to get in … Continue reading Launch of the 2025–28 Bank of England Agenda for Research →

Dario Bonciani and Johannes Fischer The UK economy has been hit by significant terms-of-trade shocks, most notably the rise in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These shocks have created substantial and persistent inflationary pressure in many countries. Such upheavals bring increased uncertainty about the future, making macroeconomic forecasting more challenging. In this … Continue reading Forecasting UK inflation in the presence of large global shocks →