Statistics & Econometrics

Created
Mon, 13/02/2023 - 20:37
The problem with a table presenting multiple estimated effect measures from the same model (“Table 2”) is that it encourages the reader to interpret all these estimates in the same way, typically as total-effect estimates. As illustrated above, the interpretation of a confounder effect estimate may be different than for the exposure effect estimate. Of […]
Created
Tue, 24/01/2023 - 04:15
Breaking news! Using advanced multiple nonlinear regression models similar to those in recent news stories on alcohol and dairy and more than 3.6M observations from 1997 through 2012, I have found that drinking more causes people to turn into men! Across people drinking 0-7 drinks per day, each drink per day causes the drinker’s probability […]
Created
Fri, 20/01/2023 - 23:25
. The central problem with the present ‘Machine Learning’ and ‘Big Data’ hype is that so many — falsely — think that they can get away with analyzing real-world phenomena without any (commitment to) theory. But — data never speaks for itself.  Data by themselves are useless. Without a prior statistical set-up, there actually are […]
Created
Mon, 09/01/2023 - 00:09
Debating econometrics and its shortcomings yours truly often gets the response from econometricians that “ok, maybe econometrics isn’t perfect, but you have to admit that it is a great technique for empirical testing of economic hypotheses.” But is econometrics — really — such a great testing instrument? Econometrics is supposed to be able to test […]
Created
Sun, 08/01/2023 - 03:51
What has always bothered me about the “experimentalist” school is the false sense of certainty it conveys. The basic idea is that if we have a “really good instrument” we can come up with “convincing” estimates of “causal effects” that are not “too sensitive to assumptions.” Elsewhere I have written  an extensive critique of this […]
Created
Fri, 16/12/2022 - 00:26
In some fields—physics, geophysics, climate science, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification in particular—there is a popular impression that probabilities can be estimated in a ‘neutral’ or ‘automatic’ way by doing Monte Carlo simulations: just let the computer reveal the distribution … Setting aside other issues in numerical modeling, Monte Carlo simulation is a way to […]