Unfortunately, social sciences’ hope that we can control simultaneously for a range of factors like education, labor force attachment, discrimination, and others is simply more wishful thinking. The problem is that the causal relations underlying such associations are so complex and so irregular that the mechanical process of regression analysis has no hope of unpacking […]
Statistics & Econometrics
People sometimes speak as if random variables “behave” in a certain way, as if they have a life of their own. Thus “X is normally distributed”, “W follows a gamma”, “The underlying distribution behind y is binomial”, and so on. To behave is to act, to be caused, to react. Somehow, it is thought, these […]
Solve for x — give a single, unique number — in the following equation: x + y = 3. Of course, it cannot be done: under no rules of mathematics can a unique x be discovered; there are one too many unknowns. Nevertheless, someone holding to the subjective interpretation of probability could tell us, say, […]
Trygve Haavelmo — with the completion (in 1958) of the twenty-fifth volume of Econometrica — assessed the role of econometrics in the advancement of economics, and although mainly positive of the “repair work” and “clearing-up work” done, he also found some grounds for despair: We have found certain general principles which would seem to make good sense. Essentially, […]
As is brilliantly attested by the work of Pearl, an extensive and fruitful theory of causality can be erected upon the foundation of a Pearlian DAG. So, when we can assume that a certain DAG is indeed a Pearlian DAG representation of a system, we can apply that theory to further our causal understanding of […]
All science entails human judgment, and using statistical models doesn’t relieve us of that necessity. Working with misspecified models, the scientific value of statistics is actually zero — even though you’re making valid statistical inferences! Statistical models are no substitutes for doing real science. Or as a famous German philosopher famously wrote 150 years ago: […]
. Great presentation, but I think Angrist should have also mentioned that although ‘ideally controlled experiments’ may tell us with certainty what causes what effects, this is so only when given the right ‘closures.’ Making appropriate extrapolations from — ideal, accidental, natural or quasi — experiments to different settings, populations or target systems, is not […]
There’s nothing magical about Bayes’ theorem. It boils down to the truism that your belief is only as valid as its evidence. If you have good evidence, Bayes’ theorem can yield good results. If your evidence is flimsy, Bayes’ theorem won’t be of much use. Garbage in, garbage out. The potential for Bayes abuse begins […]
For many questions in the social sciences, a research design guaranteeing the validity of causal inferences is difficult to obtain. When this is the case, researchers can attempt to defend hypothesized causal relationships by seeking data that subjects their theory to repeated falsification. Karl Popper famously argued that the degree to which we have confidence […]
An ongoing concern is that excessive focus on formal modeling and statistics can lead to neglect of practical issues and to overconfidence in formal results … Analysis interpretation depends on contextual judgments about how reality is to be mapped onto the model, and how the formal analysis results are to be mapped back into reality. […]