Derrick Kanngiesser and Tim Willems This post describes a systematic way for central banks to employ past forecasts (and associated errors) with the aim of learning more about the structure and functioning of the economy, ultimately to enable a better setting of monetary policy going forward. Results suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) inflation … Continue reading Forecast accuracy and efficiency at the Bank of England – and how forecast errors can be leveraged to do better
Forecasting
Marco Garofalo, Simon Lloyd and Edward Manuel The economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war have brought the importance of sharp changes in commodity prices, such as oil, to centre stage. While many have focused on understanding the impact of these developments on the central projection for the macroeconomic outlook, this post investigates the balance of … Continue reading Fuelling the tail: inflation- and GDP-at-Risk with oil-supply shocks
Nikoleta Anesti, Marco Garofalo, Simon Lloyd, Edward Manuel and Julian Reynolds Understanding and quantifying risks to the economic outlook is essential for effective monetary policymaking. In this post, we describe an ‘Inflation-at-Risk’ model, which helps us assess the uncertainty and balance of risks around the outlook for UK inflation, and understand how this uncertainty relates … Continue reading Unknown measures: assessing uncertainty around UK inflation using a new Inflation-at-Risk model
This post presents an update of the economic forecasts generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We describe very briefly our forecast and its change since September 2022.