Tihana Škrinjarić How effective is macroprudential policy and how should policymakers measure its stance? My recent paper surveys the literature on the topic of Growth-at-Risk (GaR), which has been developed as a methodology to provide answers to these questions by relating the effects of macroprudential policy tools to real-economy dynamics. While the results are mixed, … Continue reading Growth-at-Risk for macroprudential policy stance assessment: a survey
Systemic Risk
Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo, Simon Lloyd and Ed Manuel Since the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis, central banks have developed a range of macroprudential policies (‘macropru’) to address fault lines in the financial system. A key aim of macropru is to reduce ‘left-tail risks‘ – ie, minimise the probability and severity of future economic crises. However, building this … Continue reading The transmission of macroprudential policy in the tails
How does monetary policy affect financial vulnerabilities and, in turn, how does the state of the financial system interact with the maximum employment and price stability goals of monetary policy? These were the key questions covered in the September 30 conference organized by the Federal Reserve System. The conference was co-led by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Lael Brainard and Federal Reserve Bank of New York President and CEO John C. Williams, each of whom offered prepared remarks. The program also included a panel of current and former central bank policymakers to explore the themes of the conference, as well as paper presentations with discussants. In this post, we discuss highlights of the conference. The agenda includes links to all of the presentations as well as videos for each session.
To assess the vulnerability of the U.S. financial system, it is important to monitor leverage and funding risks—both individually and in tandem. In this post, we provide an update of four analytical models aimed at capturing different aspects of banking system vulnerability with data through 2022:Q2, assessing how these vulnerabilities have changed since last year. The four models were introduced in a Liberty Street Economics post in 2018 and have been updated annually since then.