As we all watch with bated breath for Joe Biden to verbally stumble I thought I’d just take a moment to remind ourselves of the kinds of stuff that other guys says. Here’s one from a couple of months ago: “Our nation was saved by the immortal heroes at Gettysburg. Gettysburg, what an unbelievable battle that was. The battle of Gettysburg, what an unbelievable. I mean it was so, was so much, and so interesting, and so vicious and horrible, and so beautiful in so many different ways — it represented such a big portion of the success of this country. Gettysburg, wow! I go to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, to look and to watch. And uh the statement of Robert E. Lee, who’s no longer in favor — did you ever notice that? He’s no longer in favor. ‘Never fight uphill, me boys, never fight uphill.’ They were fighting uphill, he said. Wow, that was a big mistake, he lost his great general and uh they were fighting uphill. ‘Never fight uphill, me boys,’ but it was too late.” Trump goes on a weird rant about the battle of Gettysburg and then notes of Robert E Lee that "he's no longer in favor.
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Squad members line up behind Joe Biden Running a presidential election is a specialized job. Among the details to manage is ensuring the candidate gets on the ballot in each state, no minor logistical task. There are filing dates and fees to get onto the state’s primary. There are other deadlines varying by state for when a major party must deliver the names of its presidential candidate (electors) to the state elections board/commission, often from late August to early September. That is why I call it magical thinking to believe that Democrats can simply swap out their presidential ticket in July. It’s not that it cannot happen, but it is a logistical nightmare. It doesn’t matter that France and England can hold national elections in a couple of months, whatever Jon Stewart says. It doesn’t work that way here. Election laws in the 50 states and territories are not set up for it, and GOP-controlled legislatures will hardly be willing to accomodate rival Dermocrats. Many voters are unhappy with a rerun of the 2020 contest. Yes, many want younger candidates. So do some reporters. Post debate, reporters for major news outlets want Joe Biden gone.
There’s a new USA Today poll that show Harris beating Trump by one point and Trump beating Biden by one point. (They also polled Hillary Clinton for some reason and she beats Trump by two points.) In other words, it tells us nothing. Then there’s this: As you can see, Biden does best against Trump but they all lose. If we were to take all this at face value we’d say that this is a party problem more than a Biden problem. And I’m not sure it’s any more of a problem than it’s been through this whole cycle so far. And then there’s this: Today it does look as if Biden is staying in. And as I’ve been writing since this crisis began, (and even before, to tell you the truth) this isn’t about the candidates as much as it’s about a worldview that’s clashing all over the world. It would be very helpful if we had a president who was vital and exciting but we don’t. And the other side may have someone who’s exciting but he’s also an imbecile who is loathed by half the country. It’s been close all year and nothing has changed. Yet. Gird yourself.
I would be interested in hearing from the legal beagles on this to know if there’s any possible chance they won’t be able to pull it off: Donald Trump is expected to launch a new legal battle to suppress any damaging evidence from his 2020 election-subversion case from becoming public before the 2024 election, preparing to shut down the potency of any “mini-trials” where high-profile officials could testify against him. The plans come after the US supreme court last week in its ruling that broadly conferred immunity on former presidents opened the door for the US district judge Tanya Chutkan to hold evidentiary hearings – potentially with witnesses – to determine what acts in the indictment can survive. In the coming months, Trump’s lawyers are expected to argue that the judge can decide whether the conduct is immune based on legal arguments alone, negating the need for witnesses or multiple evidentiary hearings, the people said.
Is that good? Hardly. Is it catastrophic? Not really. That’s from 538. G. Elliott Morris, who runs the place, has this: It’s 120 days until Election Day, and our model thinks the presidential election could go either way. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 481 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 516 of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 3 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives. It might not seem like it based on the panicked reaction to Biden’s poor debate performance nearly two weeks ago, but the election is still a considerable ways away. This means there is a lot of uncertainty about where the polls will end up on Nov. 5. In turn, the 538 election model puts a healthy amount of weight on non-polling factors such as economic growth and political indicators.
No, not you either Women across the U.S. learned in 2022 that they’d lost control of their bodies when the conservative majority on the Supreme Court overturned Roe. Remember when the prospective justices pledged fealty to stare decisis in their Senate confirmation hearings? Right? Their statements under oath were and are worthless. Because the ends that justify the means with this crowd. Since Donald Trump lost the presidency in 2020, conservative reactionaries have dropped the coy act. They’re saying out loud what they plan to do to America — to you — when they regain control of the White House. SCOTUS just promised Trump king-like immunity for whatever crimes he commits under the color of official acts. He’s drooling. The Lincoln Project is made up of former Republicans. They know their former allies. They created a primer on what’s ahead. Yes, they mean to scare you straight. Straight to the voting booth. John Yoo authored the infamous Bush administration memos that justified torture of prisoners in violation of the Geneva Conventions. Torture wasn’t about the mythical ticking time-bomb scenario.
Hurricane Beryl slams into Texas The Washington Post reports this morning, “Hurricane Beryl is approaching western parts of Houston after making landfall near Matagorda, Tex., around 4 a.m. Monday, the National Hurricane Center said.” We’ll come back to that. Friends who worry that the Democrats’ August convention in Chicago will be a replay of 1968 remember the violent clashes in the streets between Vietnam War protesters and Chicago Police. Things did not go smoothly inside the convention hall either. Lost in their furrowed brows is how the 1968 election turned out after President Johnson bowed out of the presidential race at the end of March that year. Democrats lost. In a landslide. Take a deep breath and think carefully. The very public navel-gazing among Democrats overJoe Biden’s capacity for the last ten days has overshadowed the Biden comms team’s flooding social media with attacks on Donald Trump’s Project 2025 plans. The Heritage Foundation-led Project 2025 means to lobotomize government agencies by replacing mission-driven, career civil servants with far-right ideologues loyal to Dear Leader.
Joe Biden, just-a wrote them a letter President Biden in a letter to Democratic colleagues this morning writes that he is not blind to concerns people have expressed about his stamina since the first presidential debate. But, “We had a Democratic nomination process and the voters have spoken clearly and decisively. I received over 14 million votes, 87% ofthe votes cast across the entire nominating process. I have nearly 3,900 delegates, making me the presumptive nominee of our party by a wide margin.” He’s not going anywhere. After Republican Donald Trump tried to throw out the 2020 election, Biden alludes, throwing out the votes of those primary voters is a bad look for Democrats. “The voters – and the voters alone – decide the nominee ofthe Democratic Party. How can we stand for democracy in our nation if we ignore it in our own party? I cannot do that. I will not do that.” Despite what the press, pundits, big donors, and groups of individuals may insist. “The question of how to move forward has been well-aired for over a week now. And it’s time for it to end,” Biden insists. But it won’t end. Not yet.
The fascist threat is global. France stopped them yesterday. Will we? In the first round of the French snap elections called by President Emmanuel Macron last month, the far right came in first, scaring les pantalons off of everyone in Europe. Not since the Vichy government in the 1940s had France been led by the authoritarian far right. But it looked very possible, especially considering the right wing surge in the European Union elections in the country, which precipitated Macron’s call for elections in the first place. As recently as three days ago, polls showed that the second round would likely lead to such an outcome. But a funny thing happened on the way to that run-off. The parties of the left formed a National Popular Front party and they joined with the center to block the right. Many of the candidates in each district had to make the hard choice to leave the race so that the stronger member of the opposition could defeat the right.
I realize that we are all concerned about Biden’s recent inability to communicate clearly and what appears to be his frailty which is accelerating. I am concerned too. But I hope that regardless of whether he stays in or there’s a big fight, that we can all keep at least some perspective on the fact that his opponent is even worse. Yes, his character flaws are immense and his agenda is toxic. But with all this talk about communication and cognitive problems I think it’s important to recall that Trump is also falling apart which makes him a much greater risk in a second term than Biden, even on his worst days. It certainly makes him a bigger risk than the VP or, really, any Democrat no matter how debilitated they might be. This is not a comedy act. It’s a man whose mental faculties are much chaotic and disturbed than Joe Biden’s Eugene Robinson wrote this a month ago, before the debate but it holds just as true today: We in the media have failed by becoming inured to Trump’s verbal incontinence — not just the rapid-fire lies and revenge-seeking threats, but also the frightening glimpses into a mind that is, evidently, unwell.