This is pretty shocking: In the past five weeks, Trump’s operation has spent more than $29 million on TV ads criticizing Vice President Kamala Harris for supporting transgender surgeries for inmates and illegal immigrants in detention, according to data from the media tracking firm AdImpact. That makes the topic, by far, the biggest focal point when it comes to Trump’s ad spending—one of the best barometers of messaging priority there is. By contrast, the campaign has spent $5 million over that same time period on TV ads on the economy, making that topic their fifth-most emphasized. The campaign’s elevation of transgender issues above the economy constitutes one of the biggest bets in presidential politics. The former rates as among the least important to voters according to public opinion polls; the latter their top concern. The trans-heavy focus also seems to conflict with months of insistence—from the Trump campaign to the pundit class—that the ex-president will win because of inflation and jobs.
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Besides the Ed Sullivan Theatre, one of the sites in New York City most associated with The Beatles’ first American visit in February 1964 is the Plaza Hotel, which was surrounded by thousands of screaming, chanting teenagers during John, Paul, … Continue reading
But he’s their lunatic Two weeks from now, Election Day polls will be open. Vanity Fair‘s Bess Levin summarizes what Donald Trump’s been doing with his last days to build a winning coalition. Policy? Did he finally lay out his health care plan after over eight years of promises? Perhaps explain his plan for resurrecting an America he claims Democrats “destroyed”? Did he explain [timestamp 1:05:00] how he’ll “cut your taxes, end inflation, slash your prices, raise your wages,” etc.? (More on raising wages in a moment.) If Trump promised everyone in Greenville, N.C. a pony yesterday, I missed it. “Donald Trump’s closing message to voters appears to be: I’m insane,” read the tweet from Vanity Fair promoting Levin’s take: Instead, he talked about the size a famous golfer’s penis, pretended to be a fast-food worker at a closed McDonald’s, and claimed every single goose in Springfield, Ohio, has has gone missing.
Is the Harris-Cheney teamup unnerving the Trump campaign? Former Trump aide Alyssa Farah Griffin wonders if the Kamala Harris / Liz Cheney teamup is working against Donald Trump. Griffin reminds CNN viewers that as many as 20 percent of voters voted for Nikki Haley in Republican primaries even after she dropped out. The fact that Trump is still insulting her instead of reaching out to Haley voters is not the way to win them over. Team Trump is going after Cheney as well. But that’s because “Donald Trump is going to do Donald Trump,” says Republican stragetgist Erin Perrine. Whatever comes out of his mind (mouth) is his strategy. That is, if it’s not to simply flood the zone with crazy, Griffin adds. Anything to distract from his claims about using the U.S. military against U.S. citizens. Many voters are shrugging it off as Trump being Trump. But deploying the military against Americans is also the crazy coming out of Trump’s mouth. So if crazy is a distraction strategy, Trump lacks the self-discipline to adhere to it. Cheney, meanwhile, gets to say things Harris the candidate cannot, and from the same stage in joint events with Harris.
I’m staying away form the horserace polls. But some of the other questins are interesting. Like this one: “Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52-48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60-36%.” Voters who say they could still change mind? Harris +5 I don’t know if that’s meaningful. I can’t imagine why so many people haven’t been sure that they would vote for a fetid pile of garbage over Donald Trump. But if they’re coming around, that’s good news.
One of Obama’s top strategy and data guys, Patrick Dillon, has written a statement today that I think you may want to read. It’s not just phony Hopium, it’s based on educated analysis, experience and possibly some inside knowledge. Anyway, I don’t know if this will be real or not and he admits he doesn’t know either. But this is his best guess. An excerpt: My texts are full these days of “are we gonna be okay?” and, then, a beat later, “are you really sure?” Over and over, my answers are basically “yes” and “as sure as I can be.” I also used to get paid to make big presentations this time of year to tell clients what was going on and what might happen. That process forced me to be rigorous in assessing every bit of data I could lay my hands on, and keep myself honest. That said, I’m no Nate (neither Silver nor Cohn.)3 I still believe at the end of the day campaigns are more art than science. Call it 51% gut / 49% data.
Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk taking over the Trump field operations may be one of the worst decisions he’s made and that’s saying something: Donald Trump’s ground game in Arizona and Nevada may be undercut by canvassers working for America Pac using GPS spoofing to pretend they have knocked on doors when they haven’t, according to multiple people familiar with the practice and a leaked how-to-fake-location video. The ramifications for Trump may be far reaching, given America Pac has taken on the bulk of the Trump campaign’s ground game in the battleground states, and the election increasingly appears set to be decided by turnout. A bootleg how-to-spoof video, made by an America Pac canvasser in Nevada and obtained by the Guardian, shows the apparent ease with which locations can be changed to fake door-knocks, calling into question how many Trump voters have actually been reached by the field operation.
Those two quotes are correct. The first, the second. I share this after having watched a bunch of evangelicals drool all over Trump as if he’s the second coming and I’m reminded that we don’t have to listen to the Christian Right about morality ever again. There was a time when they’d be trotted out as the avatar of Real American values. No more. They showed themselves to be simply lackeys for a demagogic cult leader. I don’t think we have to have any doubt WJWD.