Purity for thee but not for he Several years ago, when many Democratic strategists were demanding that the party embrace the tenets of the Christian Right in order to win over the salt of the earth, white, Real Americans (whom they insisted were essential to a legitimate governing majority) the media briefly reported on some of their more extreme rituals. They looked at “purity culture” practices such as gay conversion “therapy”, masturbation abstinence and “purity balls” which feature a pseudo wedding ceremony between a father and daughter. All these practices were disturbing enough that they pretty much went underground after being publicly exposed and the culture wars turned to their next battlefield, the latest being the cruel bullying of transgender teens and banning of gay literature in schools. There was something particularly creepy about the purity balls.
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Unfortunately, sometimes people have to see the consequences of their actions before it can. If there’s one issue I’ve sadly become so pessimistic about that I can hardly write about it anymore, it’s guns. The ongoing tragedy of our fetish for the grotesque weapons of war with which so many Americans believe they have a right to play makes me feel like pulling the covers over my head and never coming up for air. I’ve noted the failure of NRA in the last couple of years and they did manage to pass a very tepid gun safety bill in the last congress. But even with that it just seems so hopeless that I’ve lost heart. But I read a story this morning in the Washington Post that makes me wonder if maybe something might be changing and I’m sharing it with you with a gift link so you can read it too. It’s about four current and three former Senators who have changed their minds. That’s not something I expected to see. They interviewed these senators who all voted against the bills that were proposed in the wake of the horrific Sandy Hook massacre in 2013.
All the most hopeful political strategists I read have one big caveat as they contemplate the upcoming election: the third party threat. That could throw a monkey wrench into everything and usher in another Trump flukey win. I’ve written before about No Labels, which is nothing more than a grift of dumb big donors. But this one is something else and it’s kind of terrifying: The super PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential bid is narrowing its ballot access campaign focus to seven states — including crucial battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of the presidential election. American Values 2024 will now prioritize helping to get Kennedy on the ballot in Arizona, California, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New York and Texas, according to plans first shared with POLITICO. Half of these target states were decisive in the 2020 race, and won by now-President Joe Biden by narrow margins. The promotion of a third-party candidate in these battlegrounds could change the pathways for victory for the major parties’ nominees — even if Kennedy only garners single-digit support next November.
America loves a fighter Polls we reported on Tuesday suggest that a large swath of maybe-Trump supporters are looking for an excuse to abandon him in 2024. A criminal conviction is what they’re waiting for: An October Times/Siena poll indicates the conviction gut-punch for Trump would be stronger in swing states, leading to Biden victories in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania as well as Wisconsin where Biden is already favored. The shift would be “seismic,” with Biden winning by 10 rather than losing by four percentage points. Democrats are their own worst enemies in this situation. Three years ago on the date the Electoral College met to officially elect Joe Biden president, I posted: It is never a good bet to think Donald J. Trump won’t stoop that low or lower. But the question Democrats have to answer now both for others and for themselves is what they will do to defeat the New Confederacy that announced itself last week. Democrats’ first instinct will be to put the Recent Unpleasantness behind them…. To refresh memories, mutliple post-election protests by thousands of Trump supporters resulted in violence.
This is a viral pic of DeSantis being interviewed for a podcast. It says it all, doesn’t it? His campaign is falling apart. Any competent advance person should have seen to it that this wouldn’t happen. And then they went ahead and posted it. But DeSantis has a history of terrible photo ops and memes. Like the go-go boots: And the flight helmet: The man was never ready for prime time. And I don’t think he ever will be.
Anyone who makes a MAGA buck has to kick back to Trump. Dear Leader wants his cut: “It’s my fucking money!” the 2024 Republican presidential frontrunner privately vented in October, referring to an alleged sum in the tens of millions of dollars, a source with direct knowledge of the matter tells Rolling Stone. Trump wasn’t talking about a business deal. Rather, he’s been grumbling about money donated to a think tank his former staffers and allies founded in 2021 to “advance the America First agenda.” For several months now, according to three people with knowledge of the situation, the former president has complained to an array of confidants and Republicans about the millions raised by the America First Policy Institute, a MAGAfied think tank launched near the start of his post-presidency. The nonprofit is populated by several former high-ranking Trump administration officials, including Larry Kudlow, Rick Perry, and Linda McMahon, and it’s led by Brooke Rollins, who served as a top White House domestic policy aide to Trump.
The presidents’ Christmas messages I posted Trump’s Christmas eve message in an earlier post. It was something. He went even further on Christmas: He was busy all Christmas morning, going to church, enjoying the grandkids, watching a little football. Oh wait, no he wasn’t: By contrast: At least the mainstream media is covering it. I don’t know about Fox. I’d guess not…
There is still time Digby yesterday on the climate crisis: So kids, I’m begging you to devote as much energy as possible to this issue and make the smartest political decisions you can make right now. This just can’t wait. — there’s literally nothing more important to your future. None of the other things you care about will matter if this doesn’t get fixed. It’s now or never. It’s been gently raining all night. It’s supposed to rain all day. Steady, gentle rain. That’s different from the violent summer downpours that flood streets and basements across the neighborhood. No amount of hydrological remediation in your yard is going to stop that. The problem is climate change may be accelerating (Washington Post – gifted): For the past several years, a small group ofscientists has warned that sometime early this century, the rate of global warming — which has remained largely steady for decades — might accelerate. Temperatures could rise higher, faster. The drumbeat of weather disasters may become more insistent.
Maybe it’s going to work out after all? There’s a lot of economic news this holiday week. The media is slowly but surely beginning the turn although they give Biden no credit even as Trump is out there saying we’re in a recession and acting as if he presided over Camelot or something. But really, the news is good. Here’s one little data point from the professionals who have no reason at all to blow smoke. (After all, they can make money either way…) Here’s the Goldman Sachs projection for 2024: Unemployment to stay low, 3.6%. Wage growth of 3.5% with inflation at 2%, meaning real wage growth of 1.5%. Overall growth of 2%. FRB starts cutting interest rates throughout 2024. — Our most out-of-consensus call for 2024 is our growth forecast. Our 2% forecast for 2024 Q4/Q4 GDP growth is well above consensus of 0.9% and the FOMC’s 1.4% forecast. This reflects our view that the growth impulses from changes in financial conditions and changes in fiscal policy should be modest and roughly neutral on net next year. It also reflects our forecast that consumer spending will easily beat expectations—we expect 2% growth vs.
The Daily Mail released a poll showing that Trump is up 4 points from Biden (with a margin of error at 3.5, which is undoubtedly very generous.) They also did one of those questions asking “what word do you associate with Trump and Biden.” He’s apparently very proud of the word cloud they made of it: He likes it! I assume he thinks all this is a huge compliment. And I think we can be sure that he’s going to give them more of what they want. Here’s the Biden word cloud which he didn’t post: When I went looking for this I fully expected that the biggest word in that cloud was going to be “old.” “Nothing” is actually a happy surprise. It’s not even particularly negative, it’s just … neutral. People aren’t thinking much about him one way or the other. We can work with that. The rest of the words are largely positive. Trump’s fascism, on the other hand is making a huge impact. And it appears that a whole lot of people think his fascism is just great. They want this orange make-up wearing, yellow cotton-candy haired, imbecilic monster to be their dictator.