There is still time Digby yesterday on the climate crisis: So kids, I’m begging you to devote as much energy as possible to this issue and make the smartest political decisions you can make right now. This just can’t wait. — there’s literally nothing more important to your future. None of the other things you care about will matter if this doesn’t get fixed. It’s now or never. It’s been gently raining all night. It’s supposed to rain all day. Steady, gentle rain. That’s different from the violent summer downpours that flood streets and basements across the neighborhood. No amount of hydrological remediation in your yard is going to stop that. The problem is climate change may be accelerating (Washington Post – gifted): For the past several years, a small group ofscientists has warned that sometime early this century, the rate of global warming — which has remained largely steady for decades — might accelerate. Temperatures could rise higher, faster. The drumbeat of weather disasters may become more insistent.
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Maybe it’s going to work out after all? There’s a lot of economic news this holiday week. The media is slowly but surely beginning the turn although they give Biden no credit even as Trump is out there saying we’re in a recession and acting as if he presided over Camelot or something. But really, the news is good. Here’s one little data point from the professionals who have no reason at all to blow smoke. (After all, they can make money either way…) Here’s the Goldman Sachs projection for 2024: Unemployment to stay low, 3.6%. Wage growth of 3.5% with inflation at 2%, meaning real wage growth of 1.5%. Overall growth of 2%. FRB starts cutting interest rates throughout 2024. — Our most out-of-consensus call for 2024 is our growth forecast. Our 2% forecast for 2024 Q4/Q4 GDP growth is well above consensus of 0.9% and the FOMC’s 1.4% forecast. This reflects our view that the growth impulses from changes in financial conditions and changes in fiscal policy should be modest and roughly neutral on net next year. It also reflects our forecast that consumer spending will easily beat expectations—we expect 2% growth vs.
The Daily Mail released a poll showing that Trump is up 4 points from Biden (with a margin of error at 3.5, which is undoubtedly very generous.) They also did one of those questions asking “what word do you associate with Trump and Biden.” He’s apparently very proud of the word cloud they made of it: He likes it! I assume he thinks all this is a huge compliment. And I think we can be sure that he’s going to give them more of what they want. Here’s the Biden word cloud which he didn’t post: When I went looking for this I fully expected that the biggest word in that cloud was going to be “old.” “Nothing” is actually a happy surprise. It’s not even particularly negative, it’s just … neutral. People aren’t thinking much about him one way or the other. We can work with that. The rest of the words are largely positive. Trump’s fascism, on the other hand is making a huge impact. And it appears that a whole lot of people think his fascism is just great. They want this orange make-up wearing, yellow cotton-candy haired, imbecilic monster to be their dictator.
Once again, thanks so much to everyone who has supported Hullabaloo this year. It’s such a blessing to have such generous readers and I sincerely appreciate it. I’m particularly grateful right now because I know this next year is going to be a doozy and I’m girding myself for months of angst and worry— tempered by focus, hope and determination. It’s not going to be an easy one. In fact, I absolutely believe this is a make or break election for this country. If we don’t get this right, it’s hard to see how we recover in time to keep the entire world from turning into chaos as we face out-of-control climate change in a time of authoritarian strongmen dedicated to their own self-preservation. (See: Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Orban etc…) It’s hard not to sound crazy when you talk about it… but we have to talk about it. I hope that many of you were able to take the whole week off and get some down time to rest up and get ready. It’s going to be a very tumultuous 2024.
Ron DeSantis’ epic failure Here’s a Christmas present for all of you who don’t have subscriptions to the NY Times: a free link to this delightful bit of holiday schadenfreude: the story of Ron DeSantis’ precipitous fall. Grab an egg nog and add a double shot. It’s just so much fun: Boxed in by a base enamored with Mr. Trump that has instinctively rallied to the former president’s defense, Mr. DeSantis has struggled for months to match the hype that followed his landslide 2022 re-election. Now, with the first votes in the Iowa caucuses only weeks away on Jan. 15, Mr. DeSantis has slipped in some polls into third place, behind Nikki Haley, and has had to downsize his once-grand national ambitions to the simple hopes that a strong showing in a single state — Iowa — could vault him back into contention. For a candidate who talks at length about his own disinterest in “managing America’s decline,” people around Mr. DeSantis are increasingly talking about managing his. Ryan Tyson, Mr.
Social Security expert Nancy Altman has some news Social Security is in safer hands: Last week, the Senate confirmed Martin O’Malley to be the next Commissioner of Social Security. This is a major achievement: It marks the first time in over 25 years that the Senate has confirmed a Social Security commissioner nominated by a Democratic president. Indeed, commissioners nominated by Democratic presidents have headed the Social Security Administration (“SSA”) for only eight years of the last 40. This fact is important because the Democratic and Republican parties have very different views about Social Security. Democrats created Social Security and in recent years have united around the need to protect and expand the system’s modest benefits. In sharp contrast, when Social Security was enacted in 1935, Republicans in Congress were overwhelmingly hostile. From the early 1950s until recently, mainstream Republicans largely voted for protecting and expanding Social Security, as the program became established and highly popular among voters across the ideological spectrum.
I think he really meant Merry F-ing Christmas but lost his nerve… You can see why all the evangelical Christians love him so much. Jesus must be so proud.
Classic: And then there’s this. Oh my God: Make it stop… That’s the America Donald Trump remembers and wants to recreate. Please don’t let him do that. I beg you.
And itself… It’s not too late, but it’s going to take intense focus and attention. Former Vice President Al Gore expressed optimism that humanity can still repair the damage to the environment that is causing global warming. “The good news is we can reclaim control of our destiny,” Gore, who has long warned of the dangers of climate change, said on “State of the Union” in an interview that aired Sunday. “We have the ability to do this,” Gore said, adding: “And it’s not impractical,” citing solar power, wind power and electric vehicles. “We can do this,” he told host Jake Tapper, “if we just overcome the greed and political power of the big fossil fuel polluters who have been trying to control this process. It’s time for people at the grassroots level in every country to speak up, and the good news is, that’s happening too. “ Sunday’s episode of “State of the Union” focused on 2023 as a year of record-setting temperatures and natural disasters.
A seismic shift possible Next year’s presidential election will be like no other. No matter who the major party candidates are. After the last, the outgoing Oval Office occupant instigated a violent insurrection to retain power that he could not win at the ballot box. The 2024 campaign will inform the world whether our nation “conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal” can endure much longer. Polls taken this early suggest that a race between incumbent Joe Biden and Donald Trump is tight. The House Jan. 6 committee determined that Trump “lit that fire” on Jan. 6. The Colorado Supreme Court, having found there was “no question” that Trump supported the insurrection, has disqualified him from the state’s ballot. Federal and state felony charges against Trump for his actions stand pending trial. Norman Eisen, Celinda Lake and Anat Shenker-Osorio suggest the race could shift significantly if Trump is convicted before November 2024.