The details of what’s happening with the economy are frankly a bit beyond my ken so I was grateful to see this easy explainer from Josh Marshall today. (And you should subscribe if you can. His site is super valuable right now.) The Atlanta Fed has again lowered its projection for first quarter 2025 GDP. It had been predicting growth of 2.3%. At the end of last week that was revised to 1.5% contraction and this morning they were again down-revised 2.8% contraction, or in other words 2.8% negative growth. To be clear these aren’t final or official stats. We’re only two-thirds of the way through the quarter. They are a prediction based on current indicators. But if it’s not clear that would mean a steep move into recession. And the numbers which presage that outcome are largely tied to general economic uncertainty and various collective economic decisions based on the expectations of a dramatic ramp up in U.S. tariffs and tariff retaliation. Normally, you wouldn’t expect that an administration would be able to manage such a stark reversal six weeks into a presidency. The first three weeks of the quarter weren’t even under Trump.
Uncategorized
Lech Walesa, former hero of the right wing: Your Excellency, Mr. President, We watched the report of your conversation with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, with fear and distaste. We find it insulting that you expect Ukraine to show respect and gratitude for the material assistance provided by the United States in its fight against russia. Gratitude is owed to the heroic Ukrainian soldiers who shed their blood in defense of the values of the free world. They have been dying on the front lines for more than 11 years in the name of these values and the independence of their homeland, which was attacked by Putin’s russia. We do not understand how the leader of a country that symbolizes the free world cannot recognize this. Our alarm was also heightened by the atmosphere in the Oval Office during this conversation, which reminded us of the interrogations we endured at the hands of the Security Services and the debates in Communist courts. Prosecutors and judges, acting on behalf of the all-powerful communist political police, would explain to us that they held all the power while we held none.
What is going on here? Republican officials are behaving like junior high bullies everywhere they go these days. They seem to have lost all restraint and are letting their ids run wild. And it’s not just one or two. They’re all doing it. WTF?
Police-state tactics Lech Wałęsa knows from police state tactics (via The Daily Beast): Legendary Polish anti-Communist Lech Wałęsa has slammed Donald Trump’s Oval Office attack on Ukraine’s Volodymr Zelensky, comparing it to Soviet secret police tactics. Wałęsa, 81, signed a letter along with 38 other Poles who had been held captive by the Communist regime, telling Trump that the Friday spectacle filled them “with horror and distaste.” The former Polish president previously revealed that he met Trump at Mar-a-Lago in 2010, and attached a photo of the two of them to the letter, which he posted on Facebook on Monday.
Which may be sooner than they expect It’s a personal bond between them and Trump and a shared mutual hatred for “Democrats” who they see as their most dangerous enemy. The last man in the piece, who walks off in anger because he doesn’t like hearing the facts the reporter is pointing to in her questions. He is emotional and uncomfortable and that means he is being confronted with an uncomfortable truth. (I’ve been there with people in my own life… it’s always very obvious when it happens.) It’s clear they are all living in a MAGA cult information silo, of course. But the way things are going, the right wingers had better get some talking points together on war and recession and that’s not easy. He’ll try to blame Joe Biden for everything and he believes blame is all that’s necessary. But at some point, it has to click in with a few of his cultists that he promised to fix everything instantly and has taken radical actions that guarantee chaos not solutions. Maybe. They are very far gone.
It’s hard to keep track of all the atrocities so I’ll just try to highlight a few of them each day. This one kind of broke my heart. He’s going to raze the forests, take down the trees that help prevent wildfires and kill the endangered species. For real: Donald Trump has ordered that swathes of America’s forests be felled for timber, evading rules to protect endangered species while doing so and raising the prospect of chainsaws razing some of the most ecologically important trees in the US. The president, in an executive order, has demanded an expansion in tree cutting across 280m acres (113m hectares) of national forests and other public lands, claiming that “heavy-handed federal policies” have made America reliant on foreign imports of timber. “It is vital that we reverse these policies and increase domestic timber production to protect our national and economic security,” the order adds.
There’s a target on your back, people Last night notices went out here in NC-11 that Congressman Chuck Edwards (R) has planned a town hall for next week in his R+8 district. Good on him and good luck. The last one I attended did not go as he’d hoped. After the rowdy affairs going on around the country, he’s likely had time to set this up more as a lecture than a Q&A. Nevertheless, Edwards will hear plenty about Musk and his DOGE post-teens treating the government — your government and mine — like a stolen car in a chop shop. Musk grew up in South Africa and barely knows how our government works. Oh, but his techies are going to go into computer software that fell out of general use before they were born and eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse — the free-energy device of conservative politics. Entire cities might be powered by waste fraud, and abuse if only it could be captured. But Big Energy doesn’t want you to know how.
The Trade War has begun BREAKING: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just dropped a bomb on Trump. He speaks directly to the American people. He explains clearly the repercussions of Trump's Trade War on Canada, and exactly how it's going to cause tremendous pain to Americans. He is clear that… pic.twitter.com/vGZyHZifWt — Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) March 4, 2025 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau denounced President Donald Trump for launching a trade war with his country, saying that he won’t back down from a tariff fight with the United States. “Today, the United States launched a trade war against Canada. At the same time, they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin — a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense,” Trudeau said in Ottawa.“Canadians are reasonable and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight, not when our country and the well being of everyone in it is at stake.” Trudeau pledged relief to Canadian workers caught in the trade war’s crosshairs, and told the American people that his quarrel was not with them. “We don’t want this.
I have no great love for H.R Master but he’s got Trump’s number — and Putin’s. Trump isn’t happy about it: “H.R. MCMASTER IS A WEAK AND TOTALLY INEFFECTIVE LOSER!” Trump posted to his social media platform Truth Social late Sunday. “We should spend less time worrying about Putin, and more time worrying about migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our Country—So that we don’t end up like Europe!” Trump wrote in a separate post. In another post early Monday, Trump claimed that he was “the only president who gave none of Ukraine’s land to Putin’s Russia,” despite the fact that the deal cooked up by his administration thus far would fail to return Ukraine to its prewar borders. He’s mad about a 60 Minutes interview with McMaster in which he said that Trump is being played by Putin. (Duh…) “Vladimir Putin couldn’t be happier.
Musk has his eyes on Social Security Trump says that he won’t touch benefits. But he’s all for Elon eliminating waste. fraud and abuse in the program, all of which is defined by Elon. Here’s what he thinks of the program: The billionaire argued Friday on “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast that the United States government is “one big pyramid scheme” before blasting Social Security as “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.” When asked to clarify, Musk said, “Well, people pay into Social Security and the money goes out of Social Security immediately, but the obligation for Social Security is your entire retirement career.