Last night I posted that the Dodgers winning the World Series wasa good omen because they won last in 2020 and Joe Biden was victorious as well. It’s silly. But just for fun here’s some more: While the stock market is not necessarily representative of the broader economy, the S&P 500’s performance in the run-up to Election Day has historically been a strong indicator of whether the incumbent party’s candidate will retain control of the White House — correctly forecasting all but four presidential races over the last 96 years. If the index is falling, the theory goes, investors are bracing for more uncertainty from a new administration. But a climb in the S&P 500 signals that the market is expecting the current president’s party to win. And the index’s recent rise is suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris, who took over the Democratic ticket from President Joe Biden this summer, could be bound for victory. While the weirdo billionaires are betting on Orange Julius Caesar, the actual day-to-day money people are betting with their wallets on Harris. Good to know.
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Why do I get the sense that the Democrats are having a lot more fun in this campaign than the Republicans, even as serious as the whole thing is? Here we have Democratic governors dressing up as Tim Walz for Halloween: You have to love Gretchen Whitmer’s “pig”. Lol. I’m probably not being fair to the Republicans. I’m sure they’re having tons of fun pulling the wings off flies or stealing kids’ Halloween candy. And Donald Trump is doing a garbage man minstrel show. Lots of fun:
How about a little poll analysis crack? Don’t worry this won’t make you want to throw your phone across the room. It’s actually very interesting. NBC News took a look at the extremely tight state polling right now and came away thinking maybe there’s a little “adjusting” going on that is giving us all the impression that it’s actually a tie: Analysis: Even in a close election, random chance means polls should be showing a broader range of results. That raises the question of whether we’re in for another polling surprise. Recent polls in the seven core swing states show an astonishingly tight presidential race: 124 out of the last 321 polls conducted in those states — almost 39% — show margins of 1 percentage point or less. In fact, the state polls are showing not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race.
Elon Musk is the Warren Jeffs of Silicon Valley As I am obsessed with cults (for obvious reasons) I’ve read many books and watched a lot of documentaries about fundamentalist polygamists like Warren Jeffs and David Koresh. They inevitably take their cult to live in compounds where they can more easily control women and breed large numbers of children. Guess who’s following in their footsteps? Vanity Fair: Elon Musk is obsessed with procreation. We know this because (1) he frequently says things like, “A collapsing birth rate is the biggest danger civilization faces by far” and (2) he’s fathered nearly a dozen children with three separate women, and presently appears to be trying to at least double or triple those numbers, with whoever will accept his offer of DNA.
Mark Cuban explains how Trump started the high inflation: In April 2020, in the early days of Covid, the gas prices were $1.87. Oil companies went to Trump and said: we're getting crushed. You have to talk to your friends MBS and Putin and ask them to reduce production. And he… pic.twitter.com/PoDrVqyDJn — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) October 31, 2024 Yes, the pandemic supply chain problems threw the world economy into chaos and there was plenty of price gounging and external events like bird flu that raised the cost of eggs. But guess who put his foot on the gas? Mark Cuban explains how Trump started the high inflation: In April 2020, in the early days of Covid, the gas prices were $1.87. Oil companies went to Trump and said: we’re getting crushed. You have to talk to your friends MBS and Putin and ask them to reduce production. And he did. That was the day inflation started. Trump is saying that he’s going to “drill, baby, drill” like a madman to reduce inflation. Yeah. Not gonna happen.
When the cops came for her Patience Frazier had no idea why: Earlier that month, Frazier had shared a Facebook post about the son she lost. She had apologized to Abel, saying she was “so scarred n afraid” and “didn’t know what to do,” court records show. “Why would you be sorry?” asked Jacqueline “Jac” Mitcham, the 31-year-old deputy on Frazier’s doorstep, according to body-camera footage obtained by The Washington Post. “Why would you be sorry, Patience?” Frazier looked over at the other armed officers standing 10 feet away. “I’m not allowed to have personal things in my life?” said Frazier, a mother of three. “I had a miscarriage, okay? A miscarriage. Why are you guys here over a f—ing miscarriage?” Even before Roe v. Wade fell, a broad consensus had emerged across much of the antiabortion movement that women who seek abortions should not be prosecuted.
This is something that has driven me crazy for years. Here in California it’s an ongoing problem. Even this year we have a couple of these things on the ballot. Bolts.com took a look at one of them on the Ohio ballot and it’s an incredible story of political gamesmanshipt and special interest influence. It’s a gerrymandering initiative and it could affect all of us: When Songgu Kwon went to the polls earlier this month, he was eager to help Ohio adopt an independent redistricting commission. The comic book writer and illustrator, who lives near Athens, dislikes the process with which politicians have carved up Ohio into congressional and legislative districts that favor them, enabling Republicans to lock in large majorities. So he was pleased that voting rights groups had placed Issue 1, a proposal meant to create fairer maps, on the Ohio ballot this fall. “I’m in support of any measures that make the process more fair to reflect the will of the people, instead of letting the politicians decide how to gerrymander,” says Kwon. In the voting booth, he reviewed the text in front of him.
In front of an enormous crowd of 75,000 people last night, Vice President Kamala Harris gave what was billed as her “closing argument” on the Ellipse, site of Donald Trump’s infamous insurrection incitement speech on January 6th. There were no insult comedians or crude radio talk show hosts or ancient wrestling stars ripping off their shirts. It was just her, standing before that massive crowd laying out the stakes in the election and offering her vision for the future. Much of her speech was familiar to those of us who have followed the campaign closely. Her indictment of Donald Trump was crisp and direct and her list of policy objectives was meticulous and thorough. But she was also obviously making a pitch to any swing voters who are still on the fence. She said: I will always listen to you even if you don’t vote for me, I will always tell you the truth, even if it is difficult to hear. I will work every day to build consensus and reach compromise to get things done. She went on to promise to listen to people who disagree with her and, unlike Trump who considers them an enemy, she will offer them a seat at her table.
I don’t actually think that’s hopium. The vibe I’m getting from everything I see and read is that the Harris campaign is feeling cautiously optimistic. That doesn’t mean that it’s in the bag but I think it certainly means they aren’t seeing anything that would lead us to believe that Trump has it in the bag, contrary to what the MAGA crowd is saying. Again, this feels like 2012 to me. Romney and his people were measuring the drapes at this point. The polls were very close and Karl Rove was strutting around telling everyone that it was over. On election night, we had this silly scene (which happened to make Megyn Kelly’s career.) They simply could not believe that Obama had won because the polls were close and they’d convinced themselves that they couldn’t lose. After Trump came along in 2016, many of them convinced themselves that they can never lose. Obviously, we have no idea if this will go our way. We got schooled in 2016 too, after all. I was certainly convinced that Clinton would win because I couldn’t imagine how anyone could vote for that miscreant. We all know what happened.
In Trump opposite land, all of his hatefests are lovefests Trump held a hastily arranged “press conference” in which he took no questions and basically droned on for a while as per usual. Clearly, they felt they needed to address the raging scandal over his MSG rally but he couldn’t bring himself to apologize or even say that he didn’t agree with the comments. Instead he just lied and said it was a lovefest and told voters once again that they can believe him or they can believe their lying eyes. They are nervous. Their rally didn’t go as planned and now Harris is holding a huge event on the Ellipse where they expect about 50 thousand people. I doubt there’s going to be a bunch of speakers crudely insulting half the country.