Ergodicity often hides behind a veil of mathematical complexity, yet at its core, it offers a profoundly simple and insightful lens through which to view and understand probability and time. At its heart, it challenges us to distinguish between two distinct types of averages: the ensemble average and the time average. To grasp this distinction, let […]
economics
It is well-known that Keynes frequently criticised more traditional economics for committing the ‘fallacy of composition.’ This fallacy essentially involves the mistaken belief that the whole is nothing more than the sum of its parts. Keynes argued that this is not the case in society or the economy, and that, a fortiori, an adequate analysis […]
Under Black Week gör utländska företag och storbanker miljardvinster på din, lokalsamhällets och miljöns bekostnad. Hjälp till att vända utvecklingen genom att bara handla lokalt och kontant den 24-30 november. Sedan Black Friday fick sitt genombrott i Sverige har e-handeln ökat explosionsartat. Senaste Black Week kördes 3,3 miljoner paket med lastbil och flyg till Sverige, […]
Although discounting empirical evidence cannot be the right way to solve economic issues, there are still, in my view, a couple of weighty reasons why we perhaps shouldn’t be too enthusiastic about the so-called ‘empirical revolution’ that behavioural economics has brought about in mainstream economics. Behavioural experiments and laboratory research face the same fundamental problem […]
Is it not patently unrealistic to suppose that individuals … base their decision on the size of the expected utility? While entirely natural and understandable, this objection is not strictly relevant … The hypothesis asserts rather that, in making a particular class of decisions, individuals behave as if they calculated and compared expected utility and […]
• Harré, Rom (1960). An introduction to the logic of the sciences. London: Macmillan • Bhaskar, Roy (1978). A realist theory of science. Hassocks: Harvester • Garfinkel, Alan (1981). Forms of explanation: rethinking the questions in social theory. New Haven: Yale U.P. • Lieberson, Stanley (1987). Making it count: the improvement of social research and theory. Berkeley: Univ. […]
I’ll keep this mercifully short. One commenter in my Friday night econ news post asked, in a kind of oblique way, what would I do in this environment. Okay, I’ll play — but not without stating firmly and loudly that I am not dispensing investment advice, nor am I licensed any longer to do so. […]
~by Sean Paul Kelley Good heavens, the economic bad news is piling up like a bad car wreck. So, let’s do some serious rubbernecking, folks, because there is a lot of fucked up shit to watch. Just don’t step in it, okay? We begin with widepsread reports of large institutional investors (hedge funds, investment banks, […]
My new book, Brave New Wild: Can Technology Really Save the Planet? is out and available at/through all fine book stores. And hopefully some disreputable ones too!
Game theory is, like mainstream economics in general, model-oriented. There are many reasons for this – the history of the discipline, ideals borrowed from the natural sciences (especially physics), the search for universality (explaining as much as possible with as little as possible), rigour, precision, and so on. Most mainstream economists and game theorists seek […]