Danny Walker Many people expect the rise in interest rates over the past 18 months to lead house prices to fall. Average prices have already fallen by 1–2% in the UK and by more in the US. In this post I show that historically there have been large differences in how an interest rate shock … Continue reading How house prices respond to interest rates depends on where they are in the country
Financial Stability
Aidan Saggers, Lukas Alemu and Irina Mnohoghitnei Decentralised Finance (DeFi) may seem a tempting option for those seeking financial gain, autonomy, and self-governance… But how safe is a world in which ‘code is law’? Closer inspection reveals an ecosystem experiencing several hacks, attacks, and fraud. Estimates show at least US$6.5 billion has been stolen since … Continue reading Flash loans, flash attacks, and the future of DeFi
Jelle Barkema How concerned should policymakers be as UK business insolvencies have soared to 60-year highs? This phenomenon has been extensively covered in the media; with media outlets attributing the record-breaking numbers to a ‘perfect storm’ of energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and the cost of living squeeze. Insolvencies are a popular measure of economic distress … Continue reading Corporate insolvencies reaching record highs: a look under the hood
Nicola Garbarino, Benjamin Guin and Jonathan Lee 5.2 million properties in England are at risk of flooding. To ensure the availability and affordability of flood insurance to households in flood-prone areas, the UK Government introduced an innovative reinsurance scheme, Flood Re, in April 2016. It provides insurers with an option to pass the flood-risk element … Continue reading The effects of subsidised flood insurance on real estate markets
Martina Fazio and Gary Harper During recessions, and indeed pandemics, housing prices usually fall. Yet between March 2020 and December 2021 (‘the pandemic’), housing prices grew in the UK, reaching at the time their highest growth rate in a decade. During this pandemic, many more people could work from home, which potentially influenced their housing … Continue reading Location, location, location? How UK housing preferences shifted during the pandemic
Gerardo Martinez In 1936, John Maynard Keynes coined the famous term ‘Animal Spirits’ to illustrate how people take decisions based on urges, overlooking the benefits and drawbacks of their actions. To what extent are prices of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) assets driven by the sentiment of market participants, as opposed to economic fundamentals? To … Continue reading Animal spirits and environmental, social and governance asset prices: does market sentiment drive stock returns?
Kristina Bluwstein, Sudipto Karmakar and David Aikman Introduction Inflation reached almost 9% in July 2022, its highest reading since the early 1990s. A large proportion of the working age population will never have experienced such price increases, or the prospect of higher interest rates to bring inflation back under control. In recent years, many commentators … Continue reading What does the rise in the inflation mean for financial stability?
Gerardo Ferrara, Gerardo Martinez, Pelagia Neocleous, Pierre Ortlieb and Manesh Powar The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and subsequent sanctions led to unprecedented increases in key commodity prices. While prices briefly abated in late spring and early summer, these surged again over late July and August, with EU and UK gas prices reaching … Continue reading ‘There is all the difference in the world between paying and being paid’: margin calls and liquidity demand in volatile commodity markets
Ieva Sakalauskaite and Qun Harris Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08, some regulators introduced rules on bankers’ bonuses with an aim to mitigate incentives to take excessive risks, and in turn promote financial stability. In a recent paper we use detailed data on remuneration of staff in six large UK banks to look at … Continue reading How does remuneration regulation affect bankers’ pay?
John Lewis Cryptoassets and the crypto ecosystem as a whole has to face many of the same challenges as conventional assets and the regular financial system do. The same classic problems which are staple of economics textbooks (and history books), such as maturity mismatch, liquidity shortages, credibility, and collateral feedback loops. But whereas the conventional … Continue reading Old problems with new assets: some of crypto’s challenges look strangely familiar