Julian Reynolds Moves in oil prices have significant implications for the global economic outlook, affecting consumer prices, firm costs and country export revenues. But oil futures contracts tend to give an imperfect steer for the future path of oil prices because, at any given time, futures contracts may be affected by a wide range of … Continue reading What is the information content of oil futures curves?
Macroeconomics
Marko Melolinna Input/output networks are important in propagating shocks in an economy. For understanding the aggregate effects of shocks, it is useful to know which sectors are central (ie, providing a lot of inputs to a lot of other sectors) and how the central sectors are affected by and propagate the shocks to other sectors. … Continue reading UK productivity puzzle – a production network perspective
Daniel Christen and Nicola Shadbolt Geoeconomic fragmentation is one of the greatest risks to the international monetary and financial system at present, particularly since Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Fragmentation is likely to have wide-ranging implications for the global economy, including increasing the volatility of capital flows and exposing gaps in the global financial … Continue reading Precautionary facilities: stitches for a fragmented financial safety net