Macroeconomics

Samuel Smith and Marco Pinchetti Recent events in the Middle East, as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have sparked renewed interest in the consequences of geopolitical tensions for global economic developments. In this post, we argue that geopolitical risk (GPR) can transmit via two separate and intrinsically different channels: (i) a deflationary macro channel, … Continue reading The transmission channels of geopolitical risk →

Ecological economics and modern monetary economics need each other Steven Hail Here are three things that ecological economists often do not get quite right about…

Dario Bonciani and Johannes Fischer The UK economy has been hit by significant terms-of-trade shocks, most notably the rise in energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These shocks have created substantial and persistent inflationary pressure in many countries. Such upheavals bring increased uncertainty about the future, making macroeconomic forecasting more challenging. In this … Continue reading Forecasting UK inflation in the presence of large global shocks →

The magnificent failure of mainstream economics Steve Keen For the last fifty years, the development of economics has been driven by the desire to derive…

Fergus Cumming and Danny Walker Bank Rate has risen by more than 5 percentage points in the UK over the past couple of years. This has led to much higher mortgage rates for many people. In this post we analyse another potential source of pressure on mortgagors: the potential for falls in house prices to … Continue reading Why lower house prices could lead to higher mortgage rates →

Francesca Diluiso, Barbara Annicchiarico and Marco Carli While climate change is often seen as a long-term concern, climate mitigation policies can have different short-term effects, since they affect the transmission mechanism of conventional macroeconomic shocks. In a new working paper, we show that cap-and-trade schemes lead to lower volatility in GDP and financial variables, and … Continue reading Beyond emissions: the interplay of macroprudential regulation and climate policy →

The F-twist – realism, economic policy analysis and climate change – part 2 Tom Foster This article is a continuation of the article with the…

Julia Giese, Michael McLeay, David Aikman and Sujit Kapadia Central banks have been using a range of monetary policy and macroprudential tools to maintain monetary and financial stability. But when should monetary versus macroprudential tools be used and how should they be combined? Our recent paper develops a macroeconomic model to answer these questions. We … Continue reading Unifying monetary and macroprudential policy →

Ivan Yotzov, Philip Bunn, Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen and Gregory Thwaites Inflation in 2023 remains elevated across many advanced economies. Existing studies have considered the contribution of profits to persistently high inflation in the US, euro area and UK. To add to this debate, we recently asked firms in the Decision Maker Panel about their … Continue reading Profit margins and firm price growth: evidence from the Decision Maker Panel →

Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Sitong Ding and Ricardo Reis Few topics captivate our attention like the enigma of inflation. Understanding where the market thinks inflation is headed is crucial for policymakers, investors, and anyone who wants to keep their financial ducks in a row. And that’s where inflation swaps come into play. They are like … Continue reading Decoding the market for inflation risk →