inflation

Created
Wed, 19/07/2023 - 18:19
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) economists have argued from the outset that using interest rate rises to subdue inflationary pressures may in fact add to those pressures through their impact on business costs. Businesses with outstanding trade credit or overdrafts will use their market power to pass the higher borrowing costs on to consumers. In more…
Created
Mon, 17/07/2023 - 18:16
The question is when is a Labour Party a Labour Party? The answer is: When it is a Labour Party! Which means when it defends workers’ interests against capital and when it defends families against pernicious neoliberal cuts or constraints on welfare. Which means, in turn, that the British Labour Party is a Labour Party…
Created
Thu, 13/07/2023 - 18:00
Nikoleta Anesti, Marco Garofalo, Simon Lloyd, Edward Manuel and Julian Reynolds Understanding and quantifying risks to the economic outlook is essential for effective monetary policymaking. In this post, we describe an ‘Inflation-at-Risk’ model, which helps us assess the uncertainty and balance of risks around the outlook for UK inflation, and understand how this uncertainty relates … Continue reading Unknown measures: assessing uncertainty around UK inflation using a new Inflation-at-Risk model
Created
Mon, 10/07/2023 - 18:00
Marcus Buckmann, Galina Potjagailo and Philip Schnattinger Understanding the origins of currently high inflation is a challenge, since the effects from a range of large shocks are layered on top of each other. The rise of UK service price inflation to up to 6.9% in April might potentially reflect external shocks propagating to a wider … Continue reading Dissecting UK service inflation via a neural network Phillips curve
Created
Wed, 05/07/2023 - 18:00
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Ed Hall, Marco Pinchetti and Julian Reynolds The remarkable stability of US inflation dynamics in the pre-Covid era had led many to think that the Phillips Curve had flattened. However, the sharp rise in inflation that followed the Covid-19 pandemic ignited a debate on whether the Phillips Curve had steepened and, in particular, … Continue reading Did supply constraints tilt the Phillips Curve?
Created
Wed, 05/07/2023 - 18:08
Recently, I wrote about the conditions that dictate what impacts interest rate changes will have on aggregate spending and demand-driven inflation in direction, magnitude and temporality – see RBA governor’s ‘Qu’ils mangent de la brioche’ moments of disdain (June 8, 2023). It is highly likely in many cases, the decisions by central banks to increase…