Regular readers will know that I hate the term NAIRU – or Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment – which is a concoction invented by mainstream economists to maintain unemployment at elevated levels (to keep the working class in its place) and give cover to central banks to run monetary policies that redistribute income from poor to rich. If you…
Central banking
In the annals of ruses used to provoke fear in the voting public about government deficits, central bank currency issuance, and fiscal activism, the experience of Germany in the 1920s was a long-standing favourite, that could be wheeled out on demand and have immediate effect. Wheelbarrows full of money being pushed to the local bakery…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the policy rate by 0.25 points on Tuesday and claimed that it was because the inflationary outlook was in danger of accelerating out of control as a result of excessive demand pressures. This followed last week’s CPI release which showed the December increase to be 0.96 points. When…
These notes will serve as part of a briefing document that I will send off to some interested parties in Japan. Japan is about to go to the poll for a snap national election on February 8. The recently installed Prime Minister, Ms Takaichi is betting that her recent solid showing in the polls will…
I have limited time today to write a blog post and last night I was sent a new video that I recently recorded with my research colleague at Kyoto University, Professor Fujii where we talk for some hours on the topic – Japan at a Crossroads: Fiscal Policy, China, and the Growth. It was a…
I am travelling a lot today so I am typing this up in between segments. I met a journalist in Tokyo on Friday and we discussed various matters relating to the current policy debate in Japan. In addition, we discussed the latest situation for the Japanese banking sector and the fact that they are recording…
In an early blog post – Inflation targeting spells bad fiscal policy (October 15, 2009) – I outlined prior research that I had done on the issue of inflation targetting (IT). In my 2008 book with Joan Muysken – Full Employment abandoned – we provided further analysis on the issue. We found that there was…
This will be a series of blog posts where I analysis the period ahead for Japan under the new LDP leadership of Ms Sanae Takaichi. The motivation is that on November 7, 2025, the research group I am working with at Kyoto University will be staging a major event at the Diet (Parliament) Building in…
On September 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan issued its latest – Statement on Monetary Policy – where they announced that there would be no change in the overnight call rate (the policy rate). However, they also announced that they would begin selling off their holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment…
Central banks around the world tightened interest rates starting late 2021 in some places and there was a systematic period of hikes over the next year or more despite the inflationary pressures mostly showing signs of abatement as a result of factors that were not sensitive to the rising interest rates. In Australia, the RBA…