Central banking

Created
Thu, 27/02/2025 - 11:05
“Fiscal support can manage the direct economic fallout from extreme weather events.” That quote came from an interesting new research paper published in the 98th edition of the Bank of International Settlements Bulletin (February 10, 2025) – Macroeconomic impact of extreme weather events. The paper seeks to tease out what the economic impacts and policy…
Created
Sun, 23/02/2025 - 00:48
by Patrick Honohan*, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland (2009-15) That politicians should leave it to central banks to set interest rates in such a way that price stability is maintained (and restored whenever it is lost), has been an article of faith with most economists, especially since the stagflation of the 1970s given […]
Created
Thu, 23/01/2025 - 09:36
I have been working in Manila this week as part of a ‘knowledge sharing forum’ at the House of Representatives which was termed ‘Pathways to Progress Transforming the Philippine Economy’ that was run by the Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department, attached to the Congress (Government). I am also giving a presentation at De La…
Created
Mon, 20/01/2025 - 12:05
I have been arguing throughout this latest inflationary episode that the central bank rate hikes were actually introducing inflationary pressures through a number of channels, the most notable one in the Australian context being the rental component in the Consumer Price Index. The RBA has categorically denied this perversity in their policy approach, and, instead,…
Created
Wed, 08/01/2025 - 13:59
Today (November 27, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest – Monthly Consumer Price Index Indicator – for November 2024, which showed that the annual underlying inflation rate, which excludes volatile items continues to fall – from 3.5 per cent to 3.2 per cent. The overall CPI rate (including the volatile items)…
Created
Mon, 06/01/2025 - 12:50
Welcome to 2025. My blog recorded its 20th year of existence on December 24, 2024 which I suppose is something to celebrate. But when I look out the window and try to find optimism I fail. Who knows what the year holds and global uncertainty is dominating the narratives surrounding economic developments. We have a…
Created
Wed, 11/12/2024 - 13:48
It’s Wednesday and as usual I cover a few topics briefly rather than provide a deeper analysis of a single issue. Today, I consider yesterday’s RBA monetary policy decision which held interest rates at elevated levels despite the inflation rate dropping towards the lower range of its targetting band. The RBA has lost credibility and…